Fri, Oct 27, 2023·Prudential Center, Newark
Buffalo Sabres 4, New Jersey Devils 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 212 | 111 | 14 | 427 |
| NJD | 215 | 17 | 217 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:11BUFJJ PeterkaAssists: Henri Jokiharju, Owen Power · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 7:41NJDAlexander HoltzAssists: Luke Hughes, Michael McLeod · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 15:42BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Alex Tuch, Jordan Greenway · Wrist, 0.42 xG2–1
- P1 16:11NJDJesper BrattUnassisted · Snap, 0.27 xG2–2
- P2 13:47NJDErik HaulaSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 17:32BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: Mattias Samuelsson, Jeff Skinner · Slap, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 2:09NJDJack HughesPPAssists: Luke Hughes, Timo Meier · Tip-in, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 12:35BUFDylan CozensAssists: Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–4
- P3 14:17NJDErik HaulaGWGAssists: Kevin Bahl, John Marino · Tip-in, 0.13 xG4–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:39NJDBrendan Smith: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:03BUFKyle Okposo: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:00NJDOndrej Palat: Instigator2 min
- P1 16:00BUFConnor Clifton: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:00NJDOndrej Palat: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:00NJDOndrej Palat: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P1 16:00BUFConnor Clifton: Match penalty5 min
- P2 13:10NJDAlexander Holtz: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 0:56BUFUkko-Pekka Luukkonen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 14:27BUFOwen Power: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Haula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Girgensons – Olofsson4:44
xG 0.73–0.14 (84%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Tuch – Greenway – Thompson2:56
xG 0.42–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Jost – Krebs – Peterka5:01
xG 0.28–0.03 (89%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Mittelstadt7:03
xG 0.49–0.24 (67%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Power4:31
xG 0.50–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Dahlin – Power2:59
xG 0.36–0.01 (96%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Samuelsson3:19
xG 0.29–0.00 (99%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Bratt – McLeod3:59
xG 0.17–0.00 (98%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Palat – Bratt – Hischier3:38
xG 0.02–0.14 (12%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Bastian – McLeod – Holtz4:31
xG 0.22–0.41 (35%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Haula – Lazar – Mercer8:50
xG 0.02–0.41 (6%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Marino – Bahl13:32
xG 0.46–0.77 (37%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
- Hamilton – Siegenthaler12:49
xG 0.24–0.68 (26%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Smith – Hughes11:00
xG 0.18–0.66 (22%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).