Fri, Oct 27, 2023·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
St. Louis Blues 0, Vancouver Canucks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 03 | 011 | 08 | 022 |
| VAN | 119 | 311 | 15 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:59VANQuinn HughesGWGAssists: Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 5:48VANQuinn HughesAssists: Brock Boeser, J.T. Miller · Backhand, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 6:58VANPhillip Di GiuseppeAssists: Tyler Myers, J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–3
- P2 8:52VANJ.T. MillerSHAssists: Elias Pettersson · Backhand, 0.33 xG0–4
- P3 6:35VANIlya MikheyevAssists: Elias Pettersson, Andrei Kuzmenko · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:17STLPavel Buchnevich: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:09STLBrandon Saad: Holding2 min
- P1 12:22STLAlexey Toropchenko: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:26STLBrandon Saad: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:32VANQuinn Hughes: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:37VANSam Lafferty: Holding2 min
- P3 7:36VANPius Suter: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:36STLBrayden Schenn: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:19VANMark Friedman: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:19STLAlexey Toropchenko: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:59STLTorey Krug: Holding2 min
- P3 15:59VANNils Hoglander: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Suter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas4:03
xG 0.25–0.21 (55%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Schenn – Saad – Kapanen4:09
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Toropchenko – Neighbours2:01
xG 0.00–0.02 (9%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Hayes – Blais – Neighbours2:36
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Faulk – Krug9:11
xG 0.17–0.22 (44%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Faulk – Perunovich3:20
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Parayko – Perunovich4:05
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestPettersson – Mikheyev – Kuzmenko7:19
xG 0.58–0.06 (90%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Lafferty – Beauvillier – Hoglander7:01
xG 0.51–0.16 (76%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Miller – Di Giuseppe – Boeser7:37
xG 0.45–0.19 (70%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
- Joshua – Garland – Suter8:48
xG 0.30–0.08 (79%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Friedman11:40
xG 1.08–0.06 (95%)attempts 20–2goals 1–0
- Hronek – Hughes10:33
xG 0.53–0.31 (63%)attempts 13–7goals 2–0
- Myers – Soucy11:26
xG 0.26–0.08 (76%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).