Sat, Oct 28, 2023·TD Garden, Boston
Detroit Red Wings 1, Boston Bruins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 08 | 06 | 110 | 124 |
| BOS | 215 | 08 | 28 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:33BOSPavel ZachaPPAssists: Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 14:36BOSCharlie McAvoyGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–2
- P3 6:40DETJoseph VelenoAssists: Daniel Sprong · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 11:19BOSDavid PastrnakUnassisted · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–3
- P3 17:41BOSDavid PastrnakENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.46 xG1–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:08BOSCharlie McAvoy: Interference2 min
- P1 8:50DETMichael Rasmussen: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 14:56DETAndrew Copp: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:43BOSPavel Zacha: Holding2 min
- P1 19:28DETDylan Larkin: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:51DETJustin Holl: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:05BOSOskar Steen: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:40BOSTrent Frederic: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:46BOSDerek Forbort: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:46DETBen Chiarot: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:19DETJake Walman: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zacha won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Copp – Compher4:54
xG 0.18–0.13 (58%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Sprong – Rasmussen – Veleno5:02
xG 0.26–0.34 (44%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Larkin – DeBrincat – Raymond7:44
xG 0.41–0.53 (44%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Fischer – Czarnik – Kostin7:14
xG 0.05–0.26 (17%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Walman – Seider11:13
xG 0.40–0.42 (49%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Petry – Chiarot13:04
xG 0.31–0.35 (47%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Holl – Gostisbehere9:32
xG 0.24–0.59 (29%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestDeBrusk – Geekie – Poitras7:06
xG 0.52–0.19 (73%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Coyle – Frederic5:51
xG 0.30–0.27 (52%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Brown – Steen – Beecher4:59
xG 0.02–0.02 (53%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Marchand – Pastrnak – Zacha7:14
xG 0.32–0.33 (49%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Lindholm4:18
xG 0.32–0.01 (96%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Lindholm – McAvoy2:34
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Forbort – Carlo3:16
xG 0.22–0.01 (94%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).