Sat, Oct 28, 2023·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
New York Rangers 4, Vancouver Canucks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 18 | 05 | 29 | 12 | 424 |
| VAN | 07 | 19 | 211 | 06 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:18NYRArtemi PanarinPPAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 15:57VANJ.T. MillerPPAssists: Filip Hronek, Elias Pettersson · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 9:06VANTyler MyersSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P3 12:21NYRAdam FoxPPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 13:24NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 15:42VANCarson SoucyAssists: Filip Hronek, Anthony Beauvillier · Slap, 0.05 xG3–3
- OT 3:48NYRK'Andre MillerGWGAssists: Chris Kreider · Snap, 0.20 xG4–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:49NYRJacob Trouba: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:40VANDakota Joshua: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 8:35VANFilip Hronek: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 13:25NYRVincent Trocheck: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:05VANSam Lafferty: Interference2 min
- P2 14:00NYRWill Cuylle: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 16:23NYRArtemi Panarin: Holding2 min
- P3 2:50NYRJimmy Vesey: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:41VANPhillip Di Giuseppe: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 11:51VANConor Garland: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 13:32NYRFilip Chytil: Closing hand on puck2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Trocheck – Cuylle7:07
xG 0.39–0.03 (92%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Kakko7:48
xG 0.14–0.09 (60%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Panarin – Chytil – Lafrenière10:58
xG 0.08–0.25 (24%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Bonino – Goodrow – Vesey4:21
xG 0.00–0.48 (0%)attempts 1–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGustafsson – Schneider9:44
xG 0.36–0.14 (72%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Fox – Lindgren10:15
xG 0.14–0.45 (24%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Trouba – Miller11:30
xG 0.10–0.48 (17%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestPettersson – Mikheyev – Kuzmenko7:15
xG 0.38–0.04 (91%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Miller – Di Giuseppe – Boeser8:29
xG 0.21–0.07 (75%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Lafferty – Beauvillier – Hoglander6:23
xG 0.15–0.16 (48%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Joshua – Garland – Suter5:19
xG 0.19–0.34 (36%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Friedman7:09
xG 0.55–0.19 (74%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Hronek – Hughes11:10
xG 0.12–0.08 (60%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Myers – Soucy11:06
xG 0.29–0.41 (41%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).