Sat, Oct 28, 2023·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Vegas Golden Knights 4, Los Angeles Kings 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 09 | 214 | 16 | 01 | 1 | 430 |
| LAK | 114 | 112 | 112 | 02 | 0 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:11LAKAlex LaferriereAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Matt Roy · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 4:54LAKTrevor LewisAssists: Mikey Anderson, Blake Lizotte · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 7:36VGKMichael AmadioAssists: William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 12:57VGKWilliam CarrierUnassisted · Snap, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 6:26VGKMark StonePPAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Shea Theodore · Snap, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 18:57LAKDrew DoughtyAssists: Kevin Fiala, Adrian Kempe · Slap, 0.05 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. LAK Trevor Moore stopped
- 2. VGK Jack Eichel scored
- 3. LAK Pierre-Luc Dubois stopped
- 4. VGK Shea Theodore stopped
- 5. LAK Kevin Fiala stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 13:11VGKPaul Cotter: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 9:54LAKAndreas Englund: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:54VGKNicolas Hague: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:54LAKAndreas Englund: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:51VGKPaul Cotter: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:37LAKPierre-Luc Dubois: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 9:08VGKIvan Barbashev: High sticking double minor4 min
- OT 1:08LAKPhillip Danault: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Howden won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Amadio – Dorofeyev9:15
xG 0.66–0.48 (58%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- Marchessault – Barbashev – Eichel10:24
xG 0.49–0.33 (60%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Carrier – Kolesar – Howden7:00
xG 0.50–0.47 (52%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Stone – Stephenson – Cotter10:22
xG 0.35–0.95 (27%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- McNabb – Theodore15:31
xG 0.96–1.08 (47%)attempts 15–18goals 1–0
- Hague – Pachal8:01
xG 0.51–0.65 (44%)attempts 9–10goals 0–2
- Martinez – Pietrangelo16:21
xG 0.77–0.92 (46%)attempts 15–21goals 1–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Moore – Kaliyev11:35
xG 0.78–0.28 (73%)attempts 19–5goals 0–0
- Lewis – Grundstrom – Lizotte7:13
xG 0.67–0.20 (77%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Byfield10:24
xG 0.62–0.66 (49%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
- Fiala – Dubois – Laferriere10:06
xG 0.63–1.01 (38%)attempts 10–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Spence3:01
xG 0.59–0.13 (81%)attempts 10–1goals 0–1
- Doughty – Anderson14:14
xG 0.79–0.40 (66%)attempts 19–12goals 1–0
- Gavrikov – Roy12:03
xG 0.93–0.62 (60%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).