Sun, Oct 29, 2023·Prudential Center, Newark
Minnesota Wild 3, New Jersey Devils 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 110 | 117 | 17 | 334 |
| NJD | 19 | 310 | 011 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:13NJDJesper BrattAssists: John Marino, Kevin Bahl · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 14:53MINPatrick MaroonAssists: Jonas Brodin, Brock Faber · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 2:31MINRyan HartmanPPAssists: Calen Addison, Joel Eriksson Ek · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 6:10NJDTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Jesper Bratt, Luke Hughes · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 6:54NJDErik HaulaUnassisted · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P2 16:39NJDJesper BrattPPGWGAssists: Timo Meier, Luke Hughes · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 15:17MINJake MiddletonAssists: Patrick Maroon, Marcus Foligno · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:15MINJake Middleton: High sticking2 min
- P1 7:52NJDDougie Hamilton: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:23NJDErik Haula: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:45MINRyan Hartman: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:04NJDChris Tierney: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:23NJDTimo Meier: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 16:10MINDakota Mermis: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:20NJDCurtis Lazar: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:23NJDErik Haula: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against McLeod
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Foligno – Rossi5:01
xG 0.21–0.12 (63%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Duhaime – Lettieri – Dewar5:02
xG 0.02–0.01 (61%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov9:47
xG 0.29–0.35 (45%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Maroon – Foligno – Eriksson Ek2:30
xG 0.14–0.22 (39%)attempts 1–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Faber17:19
xG 0.36–0.22 (62%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Mermis – Middleton13:22
xG 0.59–0.53 (53%)attempts 18–14goals 1–0
- Merrill – Hunt4:43
xG 0.03–0.14 (17%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Lazar – Mercer9:02
xG 0.61–0.11 (85%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Palat – Bratt – McLeod8:52
xG 0.47–0.02 (95%)attempts 14–3goals 1–0
- Tierney – Bastian – Holtz4:25
xG 0.07–0.14 (33%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Meier – Hughes11:35
xG 0.25–0.51 (33%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Siegenthaler15:33
xG 0.67–0.43 (61%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Marino – Bahl13:21
xG 0.46–0.25 (65%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Smith – Hughes10:44
xG 0.51–0.41 (55%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).