Mon, Oct 30, 2023·TD Garden, Boston
Florida Panthers 2, Boston Bruins 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 216 | 09 | 012 | 00 | 237 |
| BOS | 06 | 114 | 14 | 12 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:13FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Sam Reinhart, Niko Mikkola · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 15:08FLASam ReinhartAssists: Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–0
- P2 3:38BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
- P3 7:20BOSCharlie McAvoyAssists: David Pastrnak, Pavel Zacha · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- OT 3:36BOSPavel ZachaGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 9:23BOSHampus Lindholm: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:49BOSMorgan Geekie: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 12:20FLAOliver Ekman-Larsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:28BOSCharlie McAvoy: Match penalty5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBarkov – Reinhart – Rodrigues10:16
xG 0.81–0.18 (82%)attempts 13–8goals 2–0
- Verhaeghe – Tkachuk – Lundell4:23
xG 0.30–0.05 (86%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk5:21
xG 0.28–0.20 (58%)attempts 9–1goals 0–1
- Cousins – Lomberg – Luostarinen2:30
xG 0.09–0.14 (39%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Forsling16:28
xG 1.09–0.65 (63%)attempts 22–13goals 1–1
- Forsling – Balinskis2:32
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Mahura – Balinskis9:11
xG 0.17–0.37 (32%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestPastrnak – Zacha – Poitras10:18
xG 0.62–0.22 (74%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Marchand – Pastrnak – Zacha4:20
xG 0.40–0.28 (59%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Frederic – Geekie7:33
xG 0.42–0.34 (55%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Frederic – Geekie – Poitras3:42
xG 0.12–0.09 (58%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Forbort8:08
xG 0.39–0.15 (73%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Lindholm4:47
xG 0.23–0.03 (90%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Forbort – McAvoy4:23
xG 0.42–0.25 (62%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).