Mon, Oct 30, 2023·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Seattle Kraken 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 320 | 013 | 05 | 15 | 443 |
| TBL | 19 | 115 | 113 | 00 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:08SEABrian DumoulinAssists: Justin Schultz, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 13:08SEAYanni GourdeAssists: Kailer Yamamoto, Jared McCann · Snap, 0.16 xG2–0
- P1 13:37TBLTanner JeannotAssists: Haydn Fleury, Darren Raddysh · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–1
- P1 15:52SEAKailer YamamotoPPAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Eeli Tolvanen · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–1
- P2 3:40TBLAlex Barré-BouletPPAssists: Brandon Hagel, Tanner Jeannot · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 14:32TBLBrandon HagelAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Alex Barré-Boulet · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- OT 2:53SEAJared McCannPPGWGAssists: Vince Dunn, Oliver Bjorkstrand · Slap, 0.14 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 15:07TBLMichael Eyssimont: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 2:36SEAJamie Oleksiak: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 11:27TBLMikhail Sergachev: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 14:27SEAAlexander Wennberg: High sticking2 min
- OT 1:59TBLNick Paul: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Schwartz – Wennberg12:54
xG 0.99–0.31 (76%)attempts 20–15goals 1–0
- Bjorkstrand – Kartye – Beniers7:32
xG 0.27–0.10 (73%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Shore – Bellemare – Yamamoto4:26
xG 0.25–0.13 (66%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Gourde – McCann – Tolvanen12:22
xG 0.42–0.74 (36%)attempts 17–21goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn19:37
xG 1.16–0.48 (71%)attempts 27–17goals 0–1
- Schultz – Dumoulin13:25
xG 0.79–0.27 (74%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Oleksiak – Borgen11:58
xG 0.49–1.07 (31%)attempts 10–23goals 1–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGlendening – Jeannot – Merela3:40
xG 0.22–0.02 (92%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Point7:29
xG 0.28–0.16 (64%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Paul – Sheary – Barré-Boulet2:38
xG 0.22–0.22 (50%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Point – Barré-Boulet8:48
xG 0.47–0.57 (45%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRaddysh – Sergachev3:44
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0
- Fleury – Raddysh10:32
xG 0.32–0.64 (33%)attempts 9–15goals 1–1
- Hedman – Cernak18:42
xG 0.82–1.33 (38%)attempts 24–23goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).