Tue, Oct 31, 2023·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Los Angeles Kings 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 27 | 110 | 110 | 427 |
| TOR | 05 | 013 | 112 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:38LAKAndreas EnglundAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 11:40LAKPhillip DanaultGWGAssists: Trevor Moore, Jordan Spence · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–0
- P2 9:46LAKArthur KaliyevPPAssists: Kevin Fiala, Quinton Byfield · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–0
- P3 8:25TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: Mitch Marner, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 12:13LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Anze Kopitar, Quinton Byfield · Wrist, 0.27 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:26LAKKevin Fiala: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:24TORTJ Brodie: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:44LAKKevin Fiala: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:02TORTyler Bertuzzi: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:58LAKTrevor Lewis: Interference2 min
- P3 5:53TORMax Domi: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:55LAKArthur Kaliyev: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 17:15TORMax Domi: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:15TORMax Domi: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Moore – Kaliyev12:01
xG 0.90–0.52 (63%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Fiala – Dubois – Laferriere10:55
xG 0.61–0.52 (54%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Byfield9:58
xG 0.33–0.30 (52%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Lewis – Grundstrom – Lizotte7:10
xG 0.09–0.23 (28%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnglund – Spence5:28
xG 0.54–0.03 (95%)attempts 7–3goals 2–0
- Doughty – Anderson14:50
xG 0.59–0.18 (77%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Englund – Roy3:29
xG 0.18–0.03 (87%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Bertuzzi – Nylander5:43
xG 0.54–0.14 (80%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Marner – Matthews4:59
xG 0.28–0.05 (83%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Domi – Kampf – Knies6:13
xG 0.29–0.33 (47%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Nylander – Marner – Matthews5:54
xG 0.22–0.49 (31%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Rielly2:43
xG 0.18–0.04 (83%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Rielly – Liljegren2:43
xG 0.24–0.12 (67%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Giordano – Brodie2:16
xG 0.14–0.05 (73%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).