Tue, Oct 31, 2023·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Nashville Predators 2, Vancouver Canucks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 29 | 09 | 011 | 229 |
| VAN | 110 | 26 | 211 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:45VANSam LaffertyAssists: Quinn Hughes, Anthony Beauvillier · Deflected, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 16:10NSHColton SissonsAssists: Roman Josi, Liam Foudy · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P1 16:40NSHDante FabbroAssists: Filip Forsberg, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 0:53VANElias PetterssonAssists: Quinn Hughes, Ilya Mikheyev · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 16:38VANElias PetterssonPPGWGAssists: Andrei Kuzmenko, Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 4:11VANJ.T. MillerAssists: Brock Boeser, Quinn Hughes · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–4
- P3 17:02VANElias PetterssonENAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.78 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:22VANTyler Myers: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P1 17:26VANJ.T. Miller: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 17:26VANJ.T. Miller: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:52NSHTyson Barrie: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:13VANJ.T. Miller: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:51NSHAlexandre Carrier: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 3:06VANNils Hoglander: Interference2 min
- P3 3:14NSHFilip Forsberg: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSissons – Trenin – Foudy7:42
xG 0.94–0.07 (93%)attempts 13–2goals 1–0
- Nyquist – O'Reilly – Trenin2:55
xG 0.38–0.04 (90%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Nyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg7:12
xG 0.43–0.15 (74%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Fagemo – Parssinen – Smith5:14
xG 0.19–0.10 (65%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Fabbro16:51
xG 1.20–0.48 (72%)attempts 22–10goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Carrier11:04
xG 0.31–0.09 (77%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Lauzon – Carrier2:34
xG 0.03–0.03 (49%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestJoshua – Garland – Suter8:28
xG 0.47–0.17 (73%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Lafferty – Beauvillier – Hoglander8:20
xG 0.27–0.35 (44%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Miller – Di Giuseppe – Boeser9:20
xG 0.30–0.42 (42%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Pettersson – Mikheyev – Kuzmenko9:43
xG 0.14–1.08 (12%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Hronek – Hughes14:44
xG 0.83–0.80 (51%)attempts 17–11goals 1–2
- Myers – Soucy11:28
xG 0.31–0.57 (35%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Cole – Friedman13:35
xG 0.12–0.86 (12%)attempts 5–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).