Wed, Nov 1, 2023·Ball Arena, Denver
St. Louis Blues 1, Colorado Avalanche 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 07 | 113 | 08 | 128 |
| COL | 28 | 011 | 29 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:53COLRoss ColtonAssists: Miles Wood · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 13:19COLMikko RantanenPPGWGAssists: Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 17:49STLRobert ThomasAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 1:41COLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Cale Makar, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–3
- P3 7:59COLBowen ByramAssists: Nathan MacKinnon · Snap, 0.18 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:23COLMikko Rantanen: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:22STLJordan Kyrou: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 13:19STLSammy Blais: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 7:59COLAndrew Cogliano: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:06COLJosh Manson: Holding2 min
- P3 13:09STLTyler Tucker: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:40COLLogan O'Connor: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Thomas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Kapanen – Thomas11:33
xG 0.74–0.42 (64%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Sundqvist – Blais – Toropchenko8:39
xG 0.17–0.27 (39%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Schenn – Saad – Kyrou10:01
xG 0.29–0.72 (29%)attempts 5–13goals 0–2
- Hayes – Vrana – Neighbours9:03
xG 0.06–0.54 (10%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Krug15:47
xG 0.77–0.33 (70%)attempts 20–11goals 0–0
- Leddy – Faulk2:23
xG 0.17–0.19 (48%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Leddy – Parayko2:27
xG 0.06–0.10 (37%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen13:55
xG 0.97–0.10 (91%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Wood – Colton – O'Connor9:41
xG 0.63–0.34 (65%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Johansen – Nichushkin – Tufte8:45
xG 0.67–0.53 (56%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Cogliano – MacDermid – Olofsson5:35
xG 0.12–0.03 (82%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Manson10:30
xG 0.75–0.33 (69%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Girard – Byram11:11
xG 0.89–0.63 (58%)attempts 10–11goals 2–0
- Toews – Makar14:33
xG 0.72–0.50 (59%)attempts 13–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).