Thu, Nov 2, 2023·TD Garden, Boston
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Boston Bruins 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 012 | 215 | 08 | 00 | 0 | 235 |
| BOS | 114 | 111 | 010 | 05 | 2 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:51BOSPavel ZachaAssists: Brandon Carlo, Mason Lohrei · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 1:36BOSJake DeBruskAssists: Brad Marchand, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–2
- P2 6:31TORMitch MarnerAssists: Auston Matthews, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 7:34TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, William Lagesson · Snap, 0.12 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. BOS Jake DeBrusk scored
- 2. TOR William Nylander stopped
- 3. BOS Charlie Coyle scored
- 4. TOR Auston Matthews stopped
Penalties (4)
- P2 2:38BOSDavid Pastrnak: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:04BOSBrandon Carlo: Holding2 min
- P3 8:24TORPontus Holmberg: Interference2 min
- OT 2:25TORWilliam Nylander: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Zacha
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Nylander – Knies4:52
xG 0.33–0.05 (87%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Reaves – Gregor – Holmberg4:38
xG 0.17–0.10 (64%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Marner – Matthews12:40
xG 0.63–0.60 (51%)attempts 16–16goals 0–1
- Tavares – Bertuzzi – Nylander6:26
xG 0.18–0.46 (28%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Klingberg4:39
xG 0.55–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–1goals 1–0
- Rielly – Lagesson3:08
xG 0.34–0.03 (93%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Klingberg – Lagesson5:21
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Frederic – Geekie8:11
xG 0.61–0.13 (82%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Heinen – Steen – Beecher3:38
xG 0.38–0.01 (97%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Pastrnak – Heinen – Zacha2:18
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Pastrnak – Zacha – Poitras8:28
xG 0.32–0.36 (47%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWotherspoon – Mitchell11:01
xG 0.68–0.30 (69%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Carlo10:28
xG 0.37–0.16 (70%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Carlo – Lohrei10:01
xG 0.47–0.30 (61%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).