Thu, Nov 2, 2023·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Los Angeles Kings 3, Ottawa Senators 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 114 | 212 | 012 | 338 |
| OTT | 013 | 15 | 18 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:11LAKPhillip DanaultPPAssists: Trevor Moore, Quinton Byfield · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–0
- P2 5:00LAKCarl GrundstromAssists: Adrian Kempe · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 8:55LAKAnze KopitarGWGAssists: Andreas Englund, Adrian Kempe · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–0
- P2 19:39OTTDominik KubalikPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Jakob Chychrun · Snap, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 4:09OTTJosh NorrisAssists: Jacob Bernard-Docker, Vladimir Tarasenko · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:34OTTDrake Batherson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 11:34LAKAnze Kopitar: Holding2 min
- P1 19:44LAKQuinton Byfield: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 11:25OTTJosh Norris: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:08LAKDrew Doughty: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 5:30OTTTravis Hamonic: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:50OTTTravis Hamonic: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Greig
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKopitar – Kempe – Byfield10:21
xG 0.76–0.44 (63%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Danault – Moore – Kaliyev8:56
xG 0.37–0.12 (75%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Lewis – Grundstrom – Lizotte9:11
xG 0.25–0.04 (86%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Fiala – Dubois – Laferriere11:01
xG 0.40–0.34 (54%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnglund – Spence8:49
xG 0.46–0.01 (98%)attempts 9–5goals 2–0
- Gavrikov – Spence3:00
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Gavrikov – Roy13:01
xG 0.71–0.51 (58%)attempts 21–11goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Norris – Batherson11:15
xG 0.66–0.40 (62%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Chartier – Joseph – Kelly2:35
xG 0.05–0.00 (98%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Chartier – Joseph5:13
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
- Giroux – Tkachuk – Stützle12:21
xG 0.23–0.47 (33%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChychrun – Sanderson2:01
xG 0.13–0.06 (68%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Kleven – Matinpalo6:21
xG 0.06–0.29 (18%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Hamonic – Sanderson13:16
xG 0.23–0.66 (26%)attempts 7–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).