Thu, Nov 2, 2023·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
New Jersey Devils 5, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 28 | 116 | 214 | 538 |
| MIN | 07 | 19 | 29 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:20NJDAlexander HoltzAssists: Nathan Bastian · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 15:23NJDMichael McLeodAssists: Ondrej Palat, Jesper Bratt · Tip-in, 0.20 xG2–0
- P2 2:31NJDTimo MeierPPAssists: Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt · Deflected, 0.15 xG3–0
- P2 9:03MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Calen Addison, Mats Zuccarello · Snap, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 1:10MINMarco RossiAssists: Matt Boldy, Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–2
- P3 15:36NJDJesper BrattPPGWGAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Luke Hughes · Slap, 0.16 xG4–2
- P3 16:27MINJake MiddletonAssists: Matt Boldy, Marco Rossi · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–3
- P3 19:22NJDDougie HamiltonPPAssists: Jesper Bratt, Jack Hughes · Slap, 0.08 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 16:22NJDNathan Bastian: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 1:16MINMarco Rossi: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P2 4:37MINJoel Eriksson Ek: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:24NJDDougie Hamilton: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:52MINCalen Addison: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:28MINMatt Boldy: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 18:32MINKirill Kaprizov: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rossi won the faceoff against Haula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Bratt – McLeod9:45
xG 1.02–0.21 (83%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Haula – Lazar – Mercer10:32
xG 0.58–0.11 (84%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Toffoli – Meier – Hughes11:24
xG 0.51–0.46 (53%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Tierney – Bastian – Holtz6:33
xG 0.05–0.21 (20%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Siegenthaler15:50
xG 0.96–0.40 (70%)attempts 18–11goals 1–1
- Smith – Hughes10:38
xG 0.82–0.41 (67%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Smith – Bahl2:53
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Zuccarello – Eriksson Ek6:44
xG 0.38–0.24 (62%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Maroon – Foligno – Hartman6:15
xG 0.24–0.20 (55%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Maroon – Foligno – Rossi5:03
xG 0.06–0.07 (45%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov3:19
xG 0.08–0.20 (28%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Faber18:41
xG 0.68–0.46 (60%)attempts 14–17goals 1–0
- Merrill – Addison11:42
xG 0.31–0.60 (34%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Mermis – Middleton12:35
xG 0.25–1.15 (18%)attempts 10–17goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).