Thu, Nov 2, 2023·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Nashville Predators 2, Seattle Kraken 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 111 | 114 | 09 | 234 |
| SEA | 210 | 111 | 110 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:35NSHTommy NovakPPAssists: Colton Sissons, Luke Evangelista · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 15:21SEAOliver BjorkstrandPPAssists: Justin Schultz, Jared McCann · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 17:41SEAJared McCannAssists: Yanni Gourde · Slap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 16:34NSHRoman JosiPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Filip Forsberg · Slap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 16:58SEABrian DumoulinGWGAssists: Justin Schultz, Tye Kartye · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–3
- P3 8:38SEAVince DunnAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Alexander Wennberg · Slap, 0.05 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:07SEAEeli Tolvanen: Tripping2 min
- P1 2:36SEAAdam Larsson: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 4:13NSHColton Sissons: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:33NSHDante Fabbro: Interference2 min
- P1 13:50NSHDante Fabbro: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 14:53SEAWill Borgen: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 17:50SEAPhilipp Grubauer: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:47NSHRyan McDonagh: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:44NSHTyson Barrie: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSissons – Trenin – Foudy6:15
xG 0.15–0.02 (88%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Nyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg6:38
xG 0.45–0.33 (57%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Fagemo – Parssinen – Smith5:30
xG 0.05–0.14 (28%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Novak – Sherwood – Evangelista6:02
xG 0.13–0.28 (32%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Fabbro10:32
xG 0.76–0.28 (73%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- McDonagh – Carrier10:11
xG 0.26–0.03 (88%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Josi – Barrie3:32
xG 0.12–0.12 (51%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestBjorkstrand – Kartye – Beniers8:22
xG 0.31–0.11 (74%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Gourde – McCann – Tolvanen8:57
xG 0.27–0.17 (61%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Shore – Bellemare – Yamamoto5:07
xG 0.09–0.10 (47%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Eberle – Schwartz – Wennberg9:52
xG 0.38–0.78 (32%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Dumoulin11:11
xG 0.45–0.18 (72%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
- Oleksiak – Borgen11:35
xG 0.14–0.20 (40%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Larsson – Dunn14:18
xG 0.82–0.91 (47%)attempts 19–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).