Thu, Nov 2, 2023·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Winnipeg Jets 2, Vegas Golden Knights 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 05 | 113 | 113 | 231 |
| VGK | 110 | 29 | 27 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:45VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Pavel Dorofeyev, Ben Hutton · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 6:17WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Alex Iafallo, Mark Scheifele · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 7:00VGKJonathan MarchessaultPPAssists: Mark Stone, Logan Thompson · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 8:38VGKIvan BarbashevPPGWGAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, William Karlsson · Snap, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 1:51WPGAlex IafalloPPAssists: Cole Perfetti, Kyle Connor · Deflected, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 5:47VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–4
- P3 17:08VGKJonathan MarchessaultENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.56 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:46VGKJonathan Marchessault: Holding2 min
- P1 5:24WPGDylan Samberg: Interference2 min
- P2 1:03VGKMark Stone: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:30WPGMason Appleton: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 11:06VGKMichael Amadio: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:34WPGNeal Pionk: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:56VGKJonathan Marchessault: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 19:25VGKBrayden Pachal: Holding2 min
- P3 0:00WPGKyle Connor: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Lowry – Appleton5:59
xG 0.40–0.17 (70%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Appleton4:12
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Iafallo3:46
xG 0.17–0.03 (84%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Iafallo8:29
xG 0.23–0.46 (33%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Pionk8:11
xG 0.61–0.07 (89%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Samberg5:49
xG 0.46–0.30 (61%)attempts 10–2goals 0–1
- Schmidt – Samberg5:13
xG 0.14–0.14 (49%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKolesar – Howden – Rondbjerg7:40
xG 0.32–0.08 (79%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Marchessault – Barbashev – Eichel10:39
xG 0.69–0.72 (49%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Amadio – Dorofeyev8:51
xG 0.19–0.22 (46%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Stone – Stephenson – Cotter9:57
xG 0.25–0.61 (29%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Pachal11:33
xG 0.57–0.48 (54%)attempts 6–15goals 1–0
- McNabb – Theodore14:02
xG 0.53–0.51 (51%)attempts 14–16goals 0–1
- Martinez – Pietrangelo13:33
xG 0.31–0.48 (39%)attempts 7–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).