Fri, Nov 3, 2023·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
New Jersey Devils 1, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 07 | 111 | 016 | 134 |
| STL | 011 | 213 | 211 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:12STLJake NeighboursAssists: Sammy Blais, Oskar Sundqvist · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 9:54STLKevin HayesGWGAssists: Nick Leddy, Jakub Vrana · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–2
- P2 16:39NJDCurtis LazarAssists: Alexander Holtz, John Marino · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 18:23STLKevin HayesENAssists: Colton Parayko, Jordan Binnington · Wrist, 0.62 xG1–3
- P3 19:51STLRobert ThomasENAssists: Justin Faulk, Kevin Hayes · Snap, 0.76 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:08NJDLuke Hughes: Interference2 min
- P1 10:50STLAlexey Toropchenko: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:37NJDBrendan Smith: Delaying game2 min
- P3 8:35STLPavel Buchnevich: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:35NJDBrendan Smith: Embellishment2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McLeod won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Lazar – Holtz7:01
xG 0.33–0.05 (88%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Palat – Bratt – McLeod10:03
xG 0.58–0.33 (64%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Tierney – Bratt – Bastian4:17
xG 0.25–0.03 (90%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Meier – Mercer9:15
xG 0.75–0.79 (49%)attempts 19–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Hughes4:08
xG 0.35–0.04 (90%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Marino – Hughes2:50
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Siegenthaler11:19
xG 0.51–0.32 (61%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Sundqvist – Blais – Neighbours7:56
xG 0.25–0.21 (55%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Hayes – Vrana – Toropchenko6:15
xG 0.39–0.52 (43%)attempts 5–6goals 1–1
- Schenn – Saad – Kyrou10:56
xG 0.38–0.66 (37%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Kapanen – Thomas12:33
xG 0.27–0.76 (26%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Scandella7:47
xG 0.54–0.16 (77%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Scandella – Faulk2:17
xG 0.10–0.06 (61%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Faulk – Krug14:30
xG 0.22–0.87 (20%)attempts 12–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).