Sat, Nov 4, 2023·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Nashville Predators 5, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 110 | 315 | 19 | 534 |
| EDM | 111 | 114 | 010 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:57EDMDarnell NursePPAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Ryan McLeod · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 10:22NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Marc Del Gaizo · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 0:23NSHRyan O'ReillyAssists: Filip Forsberg, Alexandre Carrier · Slap, 0.27 xG2–1
- P2 3:24NSHRyan O'ReillyPPGWGAssists: Filip Forsberg, Tommy Novak · Slap, 0.36 xG3–1
- P2 5:08EDMZach HymanPPAssists: Evan Bouchard, Connor McDavid · Deflected, 0.15 xG3–2
- P2 15:15NSHTommy NovakAssists: Luke Evangelista, Roman Josi · Snap, 0.16 xG4–2
- P3 8:22NSHRyan O'ReillyAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Alexandre Carrier · Snap, 0.32 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:36NSHJeremy Lauzon: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 13:58EDMVincent Desharnais: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 2:47EDMEvander Kane: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:36NSHAlexandre Carrier: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 5:30EDMRyan McLeod: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:05NSHTommy Novak: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:39EDMZach Hyman: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 5:55EDMEvander Kane: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:55NSHJuuso Parssinen: Embellishment2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg10:44
xG 1.19–0.39 (75%)attempts 12–5goals 3–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Smith9:52
xG 0.37–0.30 (55%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Novak – Sherwood – Evangelista7:38
xG 0.59–0.55 (52%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Foudy – Tomasino – Parssinen7:17
xG 0.32–0.32 (49%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLauzon – Carrier14:49
xG 1.26–0.40 (76%)attempts 16–7goals 2–0
- Josi – Fabbro11:57
xG 0.37–0.38 (49%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Barrie – Del Gaizo12:53
xG 0.78–0.85 (48%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Kane – Nugent-Hopkins5:27
xG 0.60–0.14 (81%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Foegele – McLeod – Holloway3:15
xG 0.27–0.08 (77%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Gagner – Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl4:09
xG 0.29–0.22 (57%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – Foegele – McDavid2:30
xG 0.03–0.05 (38%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard15:28
xG 0.99–0.32 (76%)attempts 21–14goals 0–0
- Kulak – Desharnais13:53
xG 0.47–1.00 (32%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Ceci – Nurse13:35
xG 0.65–1.41 (32%)attempts 14–16goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).