Sat, Nov 4, 2023·Capital One Arena, Washington
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 013 | 18 | 014 | 135 |
| WSH | 28 | 012 | 07 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:21WSHTom WilsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 17:21WSHSonny MilanoGWGAssists: Nick Jensen, Rasmus Sandin · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 1:38CBJDmitri VoronkovAssists: Kirill Marchenko, David Jiricek · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:02CBJJake Bean: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:17CBJDamon Severson: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P1 12:43WSHTom Wilson: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:15CBJJake Bean: Interference2 min
- P2 19:25WSHJohn Carlson: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:02CBJJake Bean: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:36WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:54WSHT.J. Oshie: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:54CBJJack Roslovic: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:54WSHMartin Fehérváry: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Jenner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMarchenko – Voronkov – Fantilli8:21
xG 0.75–0.42 (64%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Jenner – Roslovic7:52
xG 0.21–0.27 (43%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Bemstrom – Chinakhov – Sillinger10:40
xG 0.42–0.56 (43%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Kuraly – Danforth – Texier8:41
xG 0.55–1.02 (35%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Provorov2:43
xG 0.49–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0
- Severson – Werenski14:44
xG 0.90–0.86 (51%)attempts 14–17goals 0–1
- Gudbranson – Bean11:10
xG 0.53–0.84 (38%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestMalenstyn – Phillips – Lapierre5:53
xG 0.61–0.10 (86%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Mantha – McMichael – Protas8:25
xG 0.53–0.04 (92%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Milano7:49
xG 0.27–0.78 (25%)attempts 6–17goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Wilson – Strome9:52
xG 0.39–1.05 (27%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Sandin6:47
xG 0.68–0.17 (80%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry7:09
xG 0.30–0.21 (59%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Alexeyev – Sandin2:53
xG 0.06–0.10 (39%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).