Sat, Nov 4, 2023·United Center, Chicago
Florida Panthers 2, Chicago Blackhawks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 06 | 019 | 215 | 240 |
| CHI | 315 | 17 | 13 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:25CHINick FolignoPPAssists: Seth Jones, Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 9:21CHINikita ZaitsevAssists: Philipp Kurashev, Lukas Reichel · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 12:39CHITaylor HallGWGAssists: Jason Dickinson, Tyler Johnson · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 5:29CHIConnor BedardAssists: Philipp Kurashev, Jarred Tinordi · Snap, 0.07 xG0–4
- P3 6:33FLAOliver Ekman-LarssonPPAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Aleksander Barkov · Slap, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 12:29FLAMatthew TkachukAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Josh Mahura · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 19:50CHIPhilipp KurashevENAssists: Ryan Donato · Wrist, 0.74 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:43FLAKevin Stenlund: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 7:49CHICorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:10FLACarter Verhaeghe: Holding2 min
- P1 14:05CHIJarred Tinordi: Interference2 min
- P2 17:48FLAAnthony Stolarz: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:07CHIConnor Bedard: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:05CHIWyatt Kaiser: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 17:05FLAAnton Lundell: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dickinson won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestCousins – Rodrigues – Stenlund7:13
xG 0.48–0.17 (74%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Tkachuk7:52
xG 0.75–0.49 (61%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell8:32
xG 0.30–0.21 (59%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Barkov – Reinhart – Rodrigues3:17
xG 0.17–0.15 (53%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMahura – Balinskis12:00
xG 1.18–0.65 (65%)attempts 21–12goals 1–1
- Ekman-Larsson – Forsling14:00
xG 0.99–0.75 (57%)attempts 23–12goals 0–1
- Kulikov – Mikkola15:39
xG 0.25–0.48 (35%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestAthanasiou – Raddysh – Reichel8:23
xG 0.42–0.12 (78%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Perry – Donato – Entwistle8:29
xG 0.27–0.27 (50%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Johnson – Hall – Dickinson11:23
xG 0.65–0.82 (44%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
- Foligno – Kurashev – Bedard9:33
xG 0.34–0.57 (37%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestZaitsev – Kaiser9:47
xG 0.69–0.32 (68%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Tinordi – Murphy16:47
xG 0.76–0.71 (52%)attempts 13–25goals 0–0
- Jones – Kaiser2:12
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).