Sat, Nov 4, 2023·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Pittsburgh Penguins 10, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 28 | 517 | 310 | 1035 |
| SJS | 09 | 18 | 19 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:30PITReilly SmithPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 12:55PITReilly SmithAssists: Marcus Pettersson, Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 3:21PITJake GuentzelGWGAssists: Bryan Rust, Pierre-Olivier Joseph · Snap, 0.33 xG3–0
- P2 4:26PITVinnie HinostrozaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–0
- P2 8:34SJSAnthony DuclairPPAssists: Tomas Hertl, Jacob MacDonald · Slap, 0.19 xG4–1
- P2 9:12PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Reilly Smith, Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–1
- P2 9:27PITKris LetangAssists: Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust · Backhand, 0.11 xG6–1
- P2 11:53PITMatt NietoAssists: Noel Acciari, Vinnie Hinostroza · Snap, 0.20 xG7–1
- P3 0:49PITBryan RustAssists: Jake Guentzel, Erik Karlsson · Backhand, 0.15 xG8–1
- P3 9:20SJSJacob MacDonaldPPAssists: Tomas Hertl, Anthony Duclair · Slap, 0.07 xG8–2
- P3 11:02PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Reilly Smith, Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.13 xG9–2
- P3 12:10PITJake GuentzelUnassisted · Wrist, 0.37 xG10–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:49SJSAnthony Duclair: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 16:10PITJake Guentzel: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:19PITMarcus Pettersson: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:04PITSidney Crosby: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:41PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:06SJSNikolai Knyzhov: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:18PITErik Karlsson: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:40SJSLuke Kunin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:30PITVinnie Hinostroza: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:14SJSLuke Kunin: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Guentzel11:42
xG 1.31–0.75 (64%)attempts 15–10goals 4–0
- Nieto – Hinostroza – Acciari7:49
xG 0.58–0.13 (82%)attempts 9–8goals 2–0
- Malkin – Smith – Rakell9:40
xG 0.69–0.40 (63%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Eller – O'Connor – Zohorna8:50
xG 0.15–0.13 (53%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Pettersson13:13
xG 1.37–0.11 (93%)attempts 14–10goals 5–0
- Letang – Graves13:23
xG 0.79–0.30 (72%)attempts 20–10goals 2–0
- Shea – Joseph11:52
xG 0.80–1.00 (45%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Hertl – Duclair9:16
xG 0.80–0.39 (67%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Granlund – Zetterlund – Eklund10:41
xG 0.24–0.65 (27%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
- Kunin – Zadina – Sturm7:53
xG 0.13–0.72 (15%)attempts 6–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Knyzhov10:58
xG 0.65–0.57 (53%)attempts 11–17goals 0–1
- Burroughs – Ferraro10:28
xG 0.32–0.36 (47%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Rutta – Okhotiuk7:32
xG 0.05–0.87 (6%)attempts 2–11goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).