Sat, Nov 4, 2023·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Dallas Stars 0, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 013 | 05 | 09 | 027 |
| VAN | 08 | 214 | 06 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:21VANPius SuterGWGAssists: Dakota Joshua, Carson Soucy · Snap, 0.23 xG0–1
- P2 15:54VANElias PetterssonAssists: Filip Hronek, Ilya Mikheyev · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:18VANPhillip Di Giuseppe: Holding2 min
- P1 6:39DALJamie Benn: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:26DALCraig Smith: Interference2 min
- P1 15:23VANSam Lafferty: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:55DALEsa Lindell: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:29VANFilip Hronek: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:35DALWyatt Johnston: Holding2 min
- P2 18:12DALMason Marchment: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 18:12DALMason Marchment: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:12VANIan Cole: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Benn won the faceoff against Pettersson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSeguin – Marchment – Steel2:54
xG 0.24–0.05 (81%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Smith – Steel – Dellandrea3:10
xG 0.20–0.06 (76%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Duchene – Seguin – Marchment5:06
xG 0.15–0.05 (74%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson7:50
xG 0.10–0.25 (29%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hakanpää – Harley2:58
xG 0.14–0.12 (52%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Lindell – Lundkvist2:39
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Hakanpää – Lindell5:00
xG 0.11–0.18 (36%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Di Giuseppe – Boeser9:06
xG 0.45–0.16 (74%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Mikheyev – Kuzmenko8:16
xG 0.40–0.23 (63%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Joshua – Garland – Suter6:51
xG 0.29–0.20 (60%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Lafferty – Beauvillier – Hoglander3:56
xG 0.04–0.24 (14%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHronek – Hughes11:44
xG 0.51–0.16 (77%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Cole – Friedman7:49
xG 0.32–0.18 (64%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Cole – Myers2:23
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).