Sat, Nov 4, 2023·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Colorado Avalanche 0, Vegas Golden Knights 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 012 | 012 | 017 | 041 |
| VGK | 114 | 311 | 39 | 734 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:50VGKMark StoneSHGWGAssists: Brayden McNabb, Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–1
- P2 9:35VGKJack EichelAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 12:57VGKWilliam CarrierAssists: Mark Stone, Chandler Stephenson · Snap, 0.16 xG0–3
- P2 13:49VGKJack EichelPPAssists: Mark Stone, Shea Theodore · Snap, 0.09 xG0–4
- P3 3:22VGKMark StoneSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–5
- P3 9:13VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Pavel Dorofeyev · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–6
- P3 14:43VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Pavel Dorofeyev, Michael Amadio · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–7
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:14COLRyan Johansen: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:25COLMikko Rantanen: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:18VGKChandler Stephenson: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:18COLRoss Colton: Cross checking2 min
- P1 15:40VGKBrett Howden: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:32VGKBrayden Pachal: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:17COLRoss Colton: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 17:13VGKBrayden Pachal: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:13COLMiles Wood: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:13COLLogan O'Connor: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:13VGKBen Hutton: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:41VGKBen Hutton: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:15COLLogan O'Connor: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Howden
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWood – Colton – O'Connor10:15
xG 0.92–0.12 (88%)attempts 31–4goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen10:27
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 15–2goals 0–0
- Tatar – Johansen – Drouin4:34
xG 0.33–0.03 (92%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Cogliano – Nichushkin – Olofsson2:22
xG 0.00–0.20 (1%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGirard – Byram15:00
xG 0.95–0.47 (67%)attempts 27–12goals 0–1
- Johnson – Manson10:13
xG 0.63–0.30 (67%)attempts 20–5goals 0–1
- Toews – Makar14:31
xG 0.13–0.22 (37%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStone – Stephenson – Carrier4:46
xG 0.38–0.09 (81%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Carrier – Kolesar – Howden5:52
xG 0.08–0.11 (42%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Amadio – Dorofeyev8:26
xG 0.23–0.29 (44%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Marchessault – Barbashev – Eichel9:05
xG 0.23–0.31 (42%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- McNabb – Theodore12:35
xG 0.34–0.32 (52%)attempts 8–11goals 2–0
- Hutton – Pachal15:17
xG 0.54–0.71 (43%)attempts 11–26goals 1–0
- Martinez – Pietrangelo12:46
xG 0.12–0.59 (17%)attempts 8–29goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).