Sun, Nov 5, 2023·Honda Center, Anaheim
Vegas Golden Knights 2, Anaheim Ducks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 110 | 112 | 010 | 232 |
| ANA | 06 | 011 | 46 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:51VGKIvan BarbashevAssists: Jack Eichel · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 13:43VGKJack EichelAssists: Shea Theodore, Brayden McNabb · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P3 1:38ANAAdam HenriquePPAssists: Cam Fowler, Frank Vatrano · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 10:55ANASam CarrickAssists: Pavel Mintyukov · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–2
- P3 16:20ANAMason McTavishGWGAssists: Frank Vatrano, Ilya Lyubushkin · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–3
- P3 18:51ANASam CarrickENAssists: Troy Terry, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.45 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 13:34ANAAdam Henrique: Interference2 min
- P1 13:34VGKWilliam Carrier: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:30ANASam Carrick: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:17ANAPavel Mintyukov: Holding2 min
- P2 13:28VGKMark Stone: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:46VGKBrayden Pachal: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 6:59ANATrevor Zegras: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 11:07ANAIlya Lyubushkin: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Amadio – Dorofeyev11:25
xG 0.69–0.38 (64%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Kolesar – Howden – Cotter5:44
xG 0.24–0.06 (80%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Marchessault – Barbashev – Eichel9:09
xG 0.30–0.38 (44%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Stone – Stephenson – Carrier10:32
xG 0.70–1.14 (38%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Korczak12:09
xG 0.85–0.19 (82%)attempts 20–5goals 1–0
- McNabb – Theodore12:54
xG 0.67–0.87 (44%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
- Hutton – Pachal12:52
xG 0.17–0.43 (28%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Vatrano – McTavish10:01
xG 1.15–0.50 (70%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
- Terry – Zegras – Carlsson9:22
xG 0.54–0.09 (86%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Carrick – Johnston – Leason4:05
xG 0.22–0.14 (61%)attempts 2–7goals 1–0
- Killorn – Henrique – Silfverberg11:35
xG 0.37–0.74 (33%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLyubushkin – Mintyukov14:19
xG 1.61–1.01 (62%)attempts 16–15goals 2–0
- Gudas – LaCombe2:27
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Fowler – LaCombe12:04
xG 0.09–0.30 (23%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).