Mon, Nov 6, 2023·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Florida Panthers 5 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 27 | 111 | 15 | 00 | 423 |
| FLA | 319 | 012 | 113 | 12 | 546 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:19FLARyan LombergAssists: Steven Lorentz, Josh Mahura · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 3:09FLAGustav ForslingAssists: Sam Reinhart, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Slap, 0.01 xG0–2
- P1 6:09FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Sam Reinhart, Niko Mikkola · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–3
- P1 15:41CBJSean KuralyAssists: Erik Gudbranson, Justin Danforth · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
- P1 18:51CBJBoone JennerAssists: Jack Roslovic, Erik Gudbranson · Snap, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 10:02CBJKirill MarchenkoPPAssists: Ivan Provorov, Alexandre Texier · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–3
- P3 12:30CBJAlexandre TexierAssists: Andrew Peeke, Cole Sillinger · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–3
- P3 19:03FLANick CousinsUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–4
- OT 1:26FLACarter VerhaegheGWGAssists: Anton Lundell, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–5
Penalties (5)
- P2 8:44FLAJosh Mahura: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P2 16:48CBJAlexandre Texier: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:12FLAKevin Stenlund: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 2:12CBJDmitri Voronkov: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:12FLAKevin Stenlund: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Jenner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestKuraly – Olivier – Danforth12:00
xG 0.35–0.26 (57%)attempts 15–17goals 1–0
- Texier – Chinakhov – Sillinger8:58
xG 0.26–0.38 (41%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
- Gaudreau – Jenner – Roslovic14:00
xG 0.33–0.62 (35%)attempts 13–25goals 1–2
- Marchenko – Voronkov – Fantilli9:32
xG 0.28–0.87 (24%)attempts 8–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gudbranson – Bean13:55
xG 0.42–0.54 (44%)attempts 14–22goals 1–1
- Severson – Werenski18:31
xG 0.50–0.82 (38%)attempts 23–25goals 0–2
- Provorov – Peeke14:37
xG 0.43–1.10 (28%)attempts 10–28goals 1–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Tkachuk – Lundell8:55
xG 0.69–0.29 (71%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- Lorentz – Lomberg – Lockwood6:24
xG 0.51–0.12 (81%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Tkachuk – Luostarinen – Lundell5:10
xG 0.26–0.12 (69%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Barkov – Reinhart – Rodrigues12:19
xG 0.44–0.44 (50%)attempts 18–15goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Mikkola17:28
xG 1.25–0.39 (76%)attempts 31–13goals 1–1
- Ekman-Larsson – Forsling16:41
xG 0.95–0.77 (55%)attempts 30–21goals 2–2
- Reilly – Mahura12:38
xG 0.24–0.26 (48%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).