Mon, Nov 6, 2023·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Edmonton Oilers 2, Vancouver Canucks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 121 | 19 | 013 | 243 |
| VAN | 38 | 117 | 211 | 636 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:42EDMMattias EkholmPPAssists: Sam Gagner, Evander Kane · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 11:30VANQuinn HughesAssists: Andrei Kuzmenko, Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 13:22VANPius SuterAssists: Dakota Joshua, Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P1 14:52VANBrock BoeserPPGWGAssists: J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–3
- P2 7:38EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Warren Foegele · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 10:52VANNils HoglanderAssists: Sam Lafferty · Snap, 0.20 xG2–4
- P3 7:51VANJ.T. MillerPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, Filip Hronek · Slap, 0.06 xG2–5
- P3 19:04VANBrock BoeserPPAssists: Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–6
Penalties (13)
- P1 4:58VANDakota Joshua: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 14:44EDMDarnell Nurse: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 0:00EDMMattias Ekholm: Interference2 min
- P2 3:24VANNils Hoglander: Interference2 min
- P2 8:11EDMVincent Desharnais: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:33VANJ.T. Miller: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:33EDMZach Hyman: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:16EDMConnor McDavid: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:16EDMLeon Draisaitl: Misconduct10 min
- P3 11:35VANAnthony Beauvillier: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:13EDMRaphael Lavoie: Bench2 min
- P3 13:13EDM: Game misconduct head coach0 min
- P3 18:40EDMDarnell Nurse: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Pettersson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – Foegele – Holloway5:48
xG 0.84–0.45 (65%)attempts 14–6goals 1–2
- Hyman – McDavid – McLeod9:57
xG 0.49–0.40 (55%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Gagner – Kane – Nugent-Hopkins4:24
xG 0.04–0.21 (17%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Ryan – Hamblin – Lavoie4:02
xG 0.09–0.49 (16%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ekholm – Bouchard15:42
xG 0.85–0.82 (51%)attempts 20–13goals 0–1
- Kulak – Desharnais12:55
xG 0.68–0.79 (46%)attempts 19–16goals 0–2
- Ceci – Nurse12:25
xG 0.56–0.78 (42%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestLafferty – Beauvillier – Hoglander8:12
xG 0.90–0.31 (74%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Joshua – Garland – Suter6:46
xG 0.58–0.52 (53%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Pettersson – Mikheyev – Kuzmenko8:05
xG 0.31–0.31 (51%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Miller – Di Giuseppe – Boeser11:22
xG 0.23–0.68 (26%)attempts 5–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Soucy8:27
xG 0.58–0.30 (66%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Myers – Hughes4:06
xG 0.24–0.03 (87%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Soucy – Hronek2:52
xG 0.29–0.21 (58%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).