Tue, Nov 7, 2023·Centre Bell, Montreal
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Montréal Canadiens 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 49 | 08 | 115 | 532 |
| MTL | 05 | 08 | 313 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:22TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Brandon Hagel, Brayden Point · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 7:15TBLNick PaulAssists: Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P1 9:09TBLAlex Barré-BouletPPAssists: Brandon Hagel, Mikhail Sergachev · Snap, 0.09 xG3–0
- P1 13:50TBLMichael EyssimontGWGAssists: Victor Hedman, Erik Cernak · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–0
- P3 6:50MTLNick SuzukiPPAssists: Cole Caufield, Sean Monahan · Slap, 0.08 xG4–1
- P3 7:24MTLMichael PezzettaAssists: Jake Evans, Kaiden Guhle · Slap, 0.36 xG4–2
- P3 17:40TBLNick PaulPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.29 xG5–2
- P3 19:41MTLChristian DvorakAssists: Jordan Harris, Justin Barron · Snap, 0.04 xG5–3
Penalties (17)
- P1 2:57TBLLuke Glendening: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:08MTLJuraj Slafkovský: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 16:27TBLMichael Eyssimont: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:37MTLKaiden Guhle: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:30TBLMikhail Sergachev: Interference2 min
- P2 8:45TBLAlex Barré-Boulet: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:22MTLCole Caufield: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:22TBLTanner Jeannot: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:22MTLArber Xhekaj: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:02TBLAnthony Cirelli: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:02MTLAlex Newhook: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:13TBLLuke Glendening: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:14TBLBrandon Hagel: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 8:00MTLArber Xhekaj: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:00MTLArber Xhekaj: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:00TBLTanner Jeannot: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:51MTLJake Evans: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestCirelli – Eyssimont – Jeannot6:30
xG 0.52–0.16 (77%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Paul3:29
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Kucherov – Point – Hagel7:18
xG 0.29–0.11 (73%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Glendening – Motte – Barré-Boulet4:52
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Cernak9:50
xG 0.84–0.17 (83%)attempts 14–9goals 2–0
- Bogosian – de Haan7:30
xG 0.28–0.11 (72%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Sergachev2:32
xG 0.07–0.10 (40%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Evans – Pezzetta5:32
xG 0.58–0.07 (90%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Anderson – Dvorak – Newhook8:55
xG 0.34–0.46 (43%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Gallagher – Pearson – Monahan6:13
xG 0.35–0.48 (42%)attempts 7–10goals 0–2
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský8:58
xG 0.08–0.37 (17%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarris – Guhle3:16
xG 0.69–0.06 (93%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Matheson – Kovacevic3:06
xG 0.05–0.16 (23%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Kovacevic – Xhekaj7:51
xG 0.31–0.48 (40%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).