Tue, Nov 7, 2023·UBS Arena, Elmont
Minnesota Wild 4, New York Islanders 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 19 | 112 | 210 | 431 |
| NYI | 16 | 115 | 08 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:19MINPatrick MaroonAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Jake Middleton · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 11:00NYINoah DobsonAssists: Casey Cizikas, Cal Clutterbuck · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 8:34NYIOliver WahlstromPPAssists: Pierre Engvall, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 12:03MINVinni LettieriAssists: Matt Boldy, Brock Faber · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 6:50MINKirill KaprizovPPGWGAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Marcus Johansson · Slap, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 7:32MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Patrick Maroon · Snap, 0.33 xG4–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:21MINMats Zuccarello: Cross checking2 min
- P1 5:15NYICal Clutterbuck: Cross checking2 min
- P1 11:13MINConnor Dewar: Interference2 min
- P1 11:13NYIOliver Wahlstrom: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 2:09MINMatt Boldy: Interference2 min
- P2 6:39MINConnor Dewar: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:38NYICal Clutterbuck: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:38MINRyan Hartman: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:14MINCalen Addison: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:59NYICasey Cizikas: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:03NYINoah Dobson: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 15:20NYIScott Mayfield: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 17:32MINBrock Faber: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Foligno – Eriksson Ek9:28
xG 0.52–0.07 (88%)attempts 8–8goals 2–0
- Kaprizov – Boldy – Rossi6:48
xG 0.51–0.24 (68%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Duhaime – Lettieri – Dewar4:11
xG 0.05–0.08 (38%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Johansson – Zuccarello – Hartman9:17
xG 0.29–0.90 (24%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Faber13:27
xG 0.94–0.15 (86%)attempts 21–11goals 2–0
- Mermis – Middleton12:38
xG 0.33–0.27 (55%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
- Addison – Hunt9:04
xG 0.37–1.24 (23%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPageau – Fasching – Holmstrom6:56
xG 0.79–0.14 (85%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
- Palmieri – Nelson – Engvall6:33
xG 0.39–0.18 (68%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas5:07
xG 0.15–0.12 (56%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Lee – Barzal – Wahlstrom8:01
xG 0.41–0.42 (50%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPulock – Romanov9:24
xG 0.87–0.55 (61%)attempts 17–8goals 0–2
- Pelech – Dobson9:43
xG 0.83–0.55 (60%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Aho8:12
xG 0.09–0.26 (26%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).