Tue, Nov 7, 2023·Honda Center, Anaheim
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Anaheim Ducks 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 18 | 017 | 111 | 236 |
| ANA | 013 | 07 | 011 | 031 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:34PITRadim ZohornaGWGAssists: Lars Eller, Erik Karlsson · Backhand, 0.03 xG1–0
- P3 19:40PITSidney CrosbyENAssists: Jake Guentzel, Kris Letang · Backhand, 0.55 xG2–0
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:53PITLars Eller: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:13ANAIlya Lyubushkin: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:28PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:51ANAMason McTavish: Holding2 min
- P2 16:13PITLars Eller: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McTavish won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Guentzel12:16
xG 0.71–0.25 (74%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Eller – O'Connor – Zohorna8:21
xG 0.50–0.17 (74%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Malkin – Smith – Rakell12:54
xG 0.36–0.33 (52%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Nieto – Hinostroza – Acciari5:12
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Graves19:54
xG 0.65–0.16 (80%)attempts 20–10goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Pettersson15:42
xG 0.82–0.37 (69%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Ruhwedel – Shea7:12
xG 0.10–0.34 (22%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Vatrano – McTavish12:21
xG 0.39–0.22 (64%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Carrick – Johnston – Leason8:32
xG 0.26–0.17 (61%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Killorn – Henrique – Silfverberg9:43
xG 0.30–0.55 (35%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Terry – Zegras – Carlsson11:38
xG 0.16–0.49 (24%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Gudas – Vaakanainen13:21
xG 0.24–0.22 (52%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Lyubushkin – Mintyukov14:15
xG 0.44–0.79 (36%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Fowler – LaCombe17:16
xG 0.30–0.86 (26%)attempts 10–24goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).