Tue, Nov 7, 2023·Ball Arena, Denver
New Jersey Devils 3, Colorado Avalanche 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 18 | 28 | 07 | 323 |
| COL | 111 | 29 | 312 | 632 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:43NJDTyler ToffoliAssists: John Marino, Michael McLeod · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 15:50COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 2:25COLRoss ColtonAssists: Miles Wood, Logan O'Connor · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 11:04NJDTimo MeierPPAssists: Jesper Bratt, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 11:45COLMiles WoodSHAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P2 15:04NJDDougie HamiltonPPAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 7:37COLRyan JohansenGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–4
- P3 9:45COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–5
- P3 18:33COLMikko RantanenENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.33 xG3–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 8:38NJDCurtis Lazar: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:41NJDTimo Meier: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:43COLMikko Rantanen: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:27NJDDougie Hamilton: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:53NJDKevin Bahl: Interference2 min
- P2 9:59COLOndrej Pavel: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 10:44COLRoss Colton: Boarding2 min
- P2 10:44COLRoss Colton: Cross checking5 min · PPG
- P2 10:44COLRoss Colton: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 12:31NJDAlexander Holtz: Interference2 min
- P2 18:22NJDLuke Hughes: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McLeod won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Meier – Mercer10:31
xG 0.84–0.55 (61%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Bratt – McLeod8:41
xG 0.31–0.15 (67%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Tierney – Bastian – Holtz5:16
xG 0.16–0.42 (28%)attempts 5–10goals 0–2
- Haula – Lazar – Willman8:22
xG 0.03–0.55 (4%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Siegenthaler12:09
xG 1.15–0.36 (76%)attempts 22–9goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Hughes2:04
xG 0.00–0.10 (4%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Smith – Hughes9:23
xG 0.02–0.28 (5%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Nichushkin – Rantanen3:53
xG 0.35–0.04 (89%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Johansen – Lehkonen – Nichushkin4:27
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Wood – Colton – O'Connor4:20
xG 0.45–0.35 (56%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- MacKinnon – Drouin – Rantanen8:00
xG 0.43–0.69 (38%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar13:20
xG 1.09–0.34 (76%)attempts 17–13goals 2–0
- Johnson – Manson7:58
xG 0.47–0.16 (74%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Girard – Byram11:02
xG 0.21–0.46 (31%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).