Wed, Nov 8, 2023·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Los Angeles Kings 4, Vegas Golden Knights 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 09 | 214 | 210 | 433 |
| VGK | 011 | 019 | 18 | 138 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:30LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Jordan Spence, Anze Kopitar · Bat, 0.22 xG1–0
- P2 15:58LAKTrevor MoorePPGWGAssists: Jordan Spence, Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–0
- P3 2:42LAKPierre-Luc DuboisPPAssists: Adrian Kempe, Kevin Fiala · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–0
- P3 14:33VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Mark Stone, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 19:48LAKAnze KopitarENAssists: Quinton Byfield · Slap, 0.40 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:49VGKIvan Barbashev: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:05LAKKevin Fiala: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:22VGKAlec Martinez: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:58VGKJonathan Marchessault: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:20LAKArthur Kaliyev: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:00VGKMark Stone: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKopitar – Kempe – Byfield12:16
xG 1.18–0.58 (67%)attempts 28–10goals 0–0
- Lewis – Grundstrom – Lizotte9:25
xG 0.35–0.22 (61%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Fiala – Dubois – Laferriere10:51
xG 0.15–0.21 (43%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Danault – Moore – Kaliyev10:51
xG 0.07–0.88 (7%)attempts 7–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnglund – Spence9:20
xG 0.95–0.18 (84%)attempts 20–7goals 1–0
- Gavrikov – Roy13:55
xG 0.71–0.62 (54%)attempts 18–22goals 0–0
- Doughty – Anderson19:37
xG 0.18–1.16 (13%)attempts 13–22goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStone – Carrier – Amadio10:17
xG 1.09–0.16 (87%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Marchessault – Barbashev – Eichel11:28
xG 0.38–0.20 (65%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Kolesar – Howden – Rondbjerg8:15
xG 0.23–0.41 (36%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Cotter – Dorofeyev9:02
xG 0.15–1.13 (11%)attempts 3–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore14:38
xG 0.67–0.21 (76%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Hutton – Theodore3:02
xG 0.13–0.03 (83%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Hutton – Pachal8:50
xG 0.13–0.41 (23%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).