Thu, Nov 9, 2023·Ball Arena, Denver
Seattle Kraken 4, Colorado Avalanche 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 18 | 29 | 15 | 422 |
| COL | 010 | 29 | 17 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:39SEAJaden SchwartzAssists: Tye Kartye, Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 4:29SEAOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Jamie Oleksiak, Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 4:57COLBowen ByramAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Artturi Lehkonen · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 11:35SEAMatty BeniersPPAssists: Vince Dunn, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 15:40COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Cale Makar, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 12:15COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Devon Toews, Nathan MacKinnon · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 19:28SEAOliver BjorkstrandGWGAssists: Eeli Tolvanen, Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P2 6:49COLJosh Manson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:41COLTomas Tatar: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 12:11SEAAdam Larsson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:41SEAWill Borgen: Holding2 min
- P3 3:39COLValeri Nichushkin: Interference2 min
- P3 13:18COLBowen Byram: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:18COLBowen Byram: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:18SEAVince Dunn: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:57SEAJaden Schwartz: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Colton won the faceoff against Tolvanen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestGourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen9:32
xG 0.71–0.32 (69%)attempts 10–13goals 2–0
- McCann – Yamamoto – Beniers9:33
xG 0.37–0.04 (91%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Shore – Winterton – Wright5:15
xG 0.21–0.05 (81%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Gourde – Shore – Kartye2:05
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Borgen13:45
xG 0.68–0.30 (69%)attempts 12–15goals 2–2
- Larsson – Dunn16:40
xG 0.47–0.39 (54%)attempts 12–23goals 0–0
- Larsson – Oleksiak2:09
xG 0.05–0.20 (20%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Nichushkin – Rantanen6:21
xG 0.52–0.10 (84%)attempts 14–5goals 2–0
- Wood – Colton – O'Connor5:50
xG 0.17–0.05 (78%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Johansen – Nichushkin – Tufte4:44
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen6:21
xG 0.31–0.33 (48%)attempts 7–8goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar13:47
xG 0.74–0.35 (68%)attempts 24–11goals 1–0
- Johnson – Manson8:59
xG 0.16–0.23 (41%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Toews – Girard2:49
xG 0.01–0.19 (3%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).