Thu, Nov 9, 2023·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Los Angeles Kings 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 17 | 15 | 17 | 11 | 420 |
| LAK | 111 | 114 | 19 | 02 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:11PITSidney CrosbyUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 14:14LAKCarl GrundstromSHAssists: Anze Kopitar, Matt Roy · Snap, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 9:58LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Mikey Anderson, Quinton Byfield · Snap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 18:03PITLars EllerSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.25 xG2–2
- P3 0:37PITJake GuentzelAssists: Sidney Crosby, Erik Karlsson · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 6:40LAKKevin FialaAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Jordan Spence · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–3
- OT 3:45PITBryan RustGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Erik Karlsson · Wrap-around, 0.11 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:14LAKAdrian Kempe: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:14PITKris Letang: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:14LAKAdrian Kempe: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:51PITRadim Zohorna: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:20PITKris Letang: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:37PITSidney Crosby: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:58LAKVladislav Gavrikov: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Nieto – Acciari5:58
xG 0.10–0.03 (76%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Eller – Acciari – O'Connor2:48
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel12:30
xG 1.02–1.02 (50%)attempts 16–17goals 1–1
- Malkin – Smith – Rakell12:56
xG 0.26–0.32 (45%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Pettersson15:23
xG 0.49–0.32 (61%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Karlsson – Shea2:05
xG 0.09–0.10 (48%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Ruhwedel – Shea7:43
xG 0.05–0.15 (26%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestFiala – Dubois – Laferriere10:34
xG 0.61–0.28 (68%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Lewis – Grundstrom – Lizotte10:13
xG 0.39–0.31 (56%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Kopitar – Kempe – Byfield9:39
xG 0.46–0.57 (44%)attempts 16–10goals 1–1
- Danault – Moore – Kaliyev11:58
xG 0.28–0.45 (38%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnglund – Spence9:55
xG 0.69–0.20 (77%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Gavrikov – Roy17:54
xG 0.84–0.36 (70%)attempts 26–11goals 0–0
- Doughty – Anderson15:43
xG 0.43–0.90 (32%)attempts 10–17goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).