Thu, Nov 9, 2023·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Edmonton Oilers 2, San Jose Sharks 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 014 | 110 | 117 | 241 |
| SJS | 16 | 18 | 14 | 318 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:35SJSFabian ZetterlundAssists: Tomas Hertl, William Eklund · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 1:56EDMDarnell NurseAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Warren Foegele · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 9:05SJSTomas HertlAssists: Fabian Zetterlund, Nikita Okhotiuk · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 1:53SJSFilip ZadinaGWGAssists: Nico Sturm, Ryan Carpenter · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 17:34EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Evan Bouchard, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:13SJSNikita Okhotiuk: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:12SJSNico Sturm: Boarding2 min
- P3 5:43EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:15SJSWilliam Eklund: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:47EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Holding2 min
- P3 17:48SJSMikael Granlund: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Draisaitl – McDavid6:20
xG 0.76–0.34 (69%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Foegele – Holloway3:56
xG 0.19–0.01 (97%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Hyman – McDavid – McLeod6:51
xG 0.30–0.16 (66%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Gagner – Kane – Nugent-Hopkins4:54
xG 0.17–0.19 (47%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard17:25
xG 1.71–0.45 (79%)attempts 34–12goals 0–0
- Kulak – Desharnais9:42
xG 0.24–0.15 (62%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Ceci – Nurse14:51
xG 0.41–0.66 (38%)attempts 10–17goals 1–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Zetterlund – Eklund13:13
xG 0.53–0.29 (65%)attempts 17–18goals 2–0
- Carpenter – Labanc – Smith2:29
xG 0.09–0.01 (90%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Granlund – Duclair – Kunin5:48
xG 0.17–0.33 (34%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Granlund – Duclair – Labanc5:34
xG 0.27–0.51 (34%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Burroughs9:28
xG 0.74–0.53 (58%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Rutta – Okhotiuk13:34
xG 0.40–0.43 (48%)attempts 10–17goals 1–0
- Ferraro – Rutta2:12
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).