Fri, Nov 10, 2023·Prudential Center, Newark
Washington Capitals 4, New Jersey Devils 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 212 | 18 | 17 | 427 |
| NJD | 02 | 011 | 213 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:22WSHNicolas Aube-KubelAssists: Rasmus Sandin, Sonny Milano · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 10:37WSHBeck MalenstynAssists: Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Martin Fehérváry · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 6:34WSHEvgeny KuznetsovGWGAssists: Tom Wilson, Alex Ovechkin · Snap, 0.21 xG3–0
- P3 7:13NJDTimo MeierAssists: Michael McLeod, John Marino · Snap, 0.24 xG3–1
- P3 9:12NJDDawson MercerAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Akira Schmid · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 18:09WSHEvgeny KuznetsovENAssists: Lucas Johansen, Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.30 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:18NJDJohn Marino: Interference2 min
- P1 14:24NJDBrendan Smith: Interference2 min
- P1 14:37WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:37NJDDougie Hamilton: Interference2 min
- P2 19:35WSHT.J. Oshie: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:55WSHLucas Johansen: Holding2 min
- P3 11:49NJDTimo Meier: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:09WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Haula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Milano – Strome7:11
xG 0.47–0.21 (69%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Phillips – McMichael – Protas6:48
xG 0.34–0.29 (54%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
- Dowd – Aube-Kubel – Malenstyn7:48
xG 0.04–0.32 (11%)attempts 3–10goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson11:48
xG 0.63–0.96 (40%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHaman Aktell – Sandin3:00
xG 0.70–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Carlson – Haman Aktell2:15
xG 0.44–0.08 (85%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Jensen – Johansen4:32
xG 0.01–0.05 (11%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Bratt – Mercer8:07
xG 0.62–0.06 (91%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Meier – Bastian – McLeod3:25
xG 0.42–0.03 (94%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Toffoli – Bratt – McLeod4:34
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Palat – Meier – Mercer3:06
xG 0.30–0.03 (92%)attempts 5–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Hughes3:08
xG 0.20–0.09 (69%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Smith – Bahl5:59
xG 0.33–0.23 (58%)attempts 6–4goals 1–1
- Marino – Bahl5:19
xG 0.21–0.15 (58%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).