Fri, Nov 10, 2023·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
San Jose Sharks 0, Vegas Golden Knights 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 06 | 06 | 08 | 020 |
| VGK | 215 | 013 | 311 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:00VGKAlex PietrangeloGWGAssists: Michael Amadio, Mark Stone · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 11:19VGKAlec MartinezAssists: Michael Amadio, William Carrier · Slap, 0.01 xG0–2
- P3 2:24VGKWilliam KarlssonSHAssists: Jack Eichel, Alex Pietrangelo · Snap, 0.15 xG0–3
- P3 4:40VGKAlec MartinezAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–4
- P3 9:34VGKBrett HowdenAssists: Jonas Rondbjerg · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:06VGKBrett Howden: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:07VGKBrayden McNabb: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:01VGKBen Hutton: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:35VGKJonathan Marchessault: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:35VGKJonathan Marchessault: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:35SJSWilliam Eklund: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Lindblom – Labanc – Sturm7:53
xG 0.05–0.25 (18%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Carpenter – Smith8:05
xG 0.09–0.36 (20%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Granlund – Kunin – Zadina10:15
xG 0.28–0.73 (28%)attempts 11–14goals 0–2
- Hertl – Zetterlund – Eklund13:44
xG 0.34–1.16 (23%)attempts 7–30goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Rutta2:22
xG 0.21–0.10 (66%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Burroughs11:55
xG 0.24–0.80 (23%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Rutta – Okhotiuk17:01
xG 0.24–0.80 (23%)attempts 10–20goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKolesar – Howden – Rondbjerg9:27
xG 0.79–0.00 (100%)attempts 15–3goals 1–0
- Stone – Carrier – Amadio11:23
xG 0.85–0.18 (82%)attempts 17–8goals 2–0
- Marchessault – Barbashev – Eichel12:48
xG 0.72–0.28 (72%)attempts 21–11goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Cotter – Dorofeyev10:27
xG 0.24–0.32 (43%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Pietrangelo15:05
xG 1.46–0.38 (79%)attempts 31–12goals 4–0
- McNabb – Theodore17:05
xG 1.03–0.24 (81%)attempts 22–9goals 0–0
- Hutton – Whitecloud13:13
xG 0.45–0.16 (74%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).