Sat, Nov 11, 2023·Centre Bell, Montreal
Boston Bruins 2, Montréal Canadiens 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 16 | 07 | 114 | 01 | 228 |
| MTL | 06 | 011 | 28 | 12 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:36BOSPavel ZachaAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Brad Marchand · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–0
- P3 0:24MTLNick SuzukiPPAssists: Mike Matheson, Cole Caufield · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P3 0:51MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Kaiden Guhle, Jake Evans · Snap, 0.23 xG1–2
- P3 12:58BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: James van Riemsdyk, David Pastrnak · Deflected, 0.17 xG2–2
- OT 2:13MTLKaiden GuhleGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.38 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P2 7:11MTLJohnathan Kovacevic: Holding2 min
- P2 14:45BOSBrandon Carlo: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:20BOSPavel Zacha: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:33BOSDavid Pastrnak: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:48BOSBrad Marchand: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 6:19MTLAlex Newhook: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:19MTLBrendan Gallagher: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:49MTLTanner Pearson: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Zacha
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – DeBrusk – Frederic2:38
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Heinen – DeBrusk – Poitras8:02
xG 0.25–0.27 (49%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Coyle – Frederic6:27
xG 0.09–0.11 (45%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Steen – Lauko – Beecher6:18
xG 0.13–0.37 (25%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Carlo16:45
xG 0.31–0.15 (68%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Forbort – Mitchell11:31
xG 0.55–0.54 (50%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
- McAvoy – Lohrei14:19
xG 0.70–1.00 (41%)attempts 15–15goals 1–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGallagher – Pearson – Monahan8:46
xG 0.49–0.21 (70%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Caufield – Slafkovský10:16
xG 0.47–0.36 (57%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Anderson – Suzuki – Newhook12:58
xG 0.27–0.46 (37%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
- Evans – Pezzetta – Harvey-Pinard6:11
xG 0.03–0.26 (11%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKovacevic – Guhle13:34
xG 0.86–0.29 (75%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Barron – Xhekaj5:23
xG 0.34–0.27 (56%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Matheson – Barron9:34
xG 0.08–0.17 (34%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).