Sat, Nov 11, 2023·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Vancouver Canucks 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 212 | 011 | 010 | 233 |
| TOR | 14 | 213 | 25 | 522 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:43VANJ.T. MillerPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, Elias Pettersson · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 8:37TORMatthew KniesAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Max Domi · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–1
- P1 15:48VANPius SuterPPAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Filip Hronek · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 4:53TORWilliam NylanderAssists: John Tavares, Tyler Bertuzzi · Snap, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 14:22TORNoah GregorGWGAssists: Morgan Rielly, Bobby McMann · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 4:56TORNick RobertsonAssists: Max Domi · Backhand, 0.24 xG2–4
- P3 9:13TORDavid KampfAssists: Noah Gregor, Bobby McMann · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–5
Penalties (14)
- P1 0:41TORMatthew Knies: Tripping2 min
- P1 4:45TORMark Giordano: Instigator2 min · PPG
- P1 4:45VANDakota Joshua: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:45TORMark Giordano: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:45TORMark Giordano: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P1 6:36VANTyler Myers: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:12TORMax Domi: Instigator2 min · PPG
- P1 14:12VANIan Cole: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:12TORMax Domi: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:12TORMax Domi: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 1:17TORTJ Brodie: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:43TORMark Giordano: Holding2 min
- P2 7:20TORMatthew Knies: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:04VANIlya Mikheyev: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestJoshua – Garland – Suter8:45
xG 1.20–0.13 (90%)attempts 21–4goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Mikheyev – Kuzmenko7:05
xG 0.54–0.32 (63%)attempts 8–6goals 0–2
- Lafferty – Beauvillier – Hoglander6:35
xG 0.11–0.04 (73%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Miller – Di Giuseppe – Boeser8:53
xG 0.11–0.57 (16%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Myers – Soucy13:08
xG 0.42–0.43 (49%)attempts 19–7goals 0–1
- Cole – Friedman6:23
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Cole – Myers2:50
xG 0.02–0.11 (15%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Bertuzzi – Nylander9:53
xG 0.77–0.11 (87%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Marner – Matthews – Knies8:25
xG 0.17–0.27 (38%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Gregor – Kampf – McMann8:46
xG 0.38–0.49 (44%)attempts 8–11goals 2–0
- Jarnkrok – Domi – Robertson6:16
xG 0.24–0.74 (25%)attempts 1–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Klingberg2:14
xG 0.14–0.05 (75%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Brodie – Rielly10:37
xG 0.68–0.60 (53%)attempts 11–12goals 3–0
- Brodie – Klingberg2:03
xG 0.13–0.07 (67%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).