Sat, Nov 11, 2023·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Edmonton Oilers 4, Seattle Kraken 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 417 | 09 | 00 | 426 |
| SEA | 05 | 04 | 19 | 118 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:56EDMZach HymanAssists: Evander Kane · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 14:09EDMZach HymanPPGWGAssists: Evan Bouchard, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–0
- P1 18:40EDMZach HymanAssists: Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–0
- P1 19:42EDMDylan HollowayAssists: Ryan McLeod, Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–0
- P3 2:25SEAJaden SchwartzPPAssists: Eeli Tolvanen, Vince Dunn · Deflected, 0.11 xG4–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 10:29SEAWill Borgen: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:46SEAJaden Schwartz: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:45EDMDylan Holloway: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:34EDMDylan Holloway: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:34SEAAdam Larsson: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
- P2 17:45SEAAdam Larsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:48EDMZach Hyman: Interference2 min
- P3 1:58EDMDylan Holloway: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 8:53EDMDylan Holloway: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:53SEAVince Dunn: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Tolvanen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – Foegele – McDavid11:41
xG 0.24–0.03 (90%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Ryan – McLeod – Holloway6:56
xG 0.39–0.21 (65%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Kane – Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins12:36
xG 0.40–0.39 (50%)attempts 6–8goals 2–0
- Gagner – Hamblin – Lavoie2:53
xG 0.02–0.03 (35%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Nurse15:55
xG 0.55–0.14 (79%)attempts 11–13goals 2–0
- Ekholm – Bouchard15:02
xG 0.63–0.37 (63%)attempts 18–5goals 1–0
- Kulak – Nurse2:04
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestGourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen8:56
xG 0.54–0.19 (74%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1
- Schwartz – McCann – Beniers5:35
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Wennberg – Kartye – Winterton3:02
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Shore – Winterton – Wright5:10
xG 0.03–0.06 (36%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Borgen11:48
xG 0.37–0.19 (66%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Schultz – Oleksiak2:19
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Schultz – Dumoulin10:44
xG 0.06–0.45 (11%)attempts 4–8goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).