Sun, Nov 12, 2023·Honda Center, Anaheim
San Jose Sharks 1, Anaheim Ducks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 18 | 012 | 06 | 126 |
| ANA | 214 | 018 | 212 | 444 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:49ANAFrank VatranoAssists: Ilya Lyubushkin, Ryan Strome · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 13:05SJSLuke KuninAssists: Tomas Hertl, William Eklund · Bat, 0.17 xG1–1
- P1 18:22ANAFrank VatranoPPGWGAssists: Cam Fowler, Jakob Silfverberg · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 1:52ANAMason McTavishPPAssists: Leo Carlsson, Pavel Mintyukov · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–3
- P3 2:41ANARadko GudasAssists: Ryan Strome, Frank Vatrano · Slap, 0.02 xG1–4
Penalties (15)
- P1 17:06SJSNikolai Knyzhov: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 8:37SJSKyle Burroughs: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:37SJSLuke Kunin: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:37ANAMax Jones: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:20ANABo Groulx: Holding2 min
- P2 12:51SJSFabian Zetterlund: Interference2 min
- P2 16:08ANARyan Strome: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00ANARyan Strome: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00SJSJan Rutta: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 1:02SJSFabian Zetterlund: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:25SJSGivani Smith: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:25ANASam Carrick: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:25SJSGivani Smith: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:00ANASam Carrick: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00SJSGivani Smith: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Kunin – Eklund3:25
xG 0.37–0.31 (55%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Hoffman – Labanc – Sturm3:26
xG 0.04–0.00 (89%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Carpenter – Smith – Zetterlund2:09
xG 0.04–0.12 (25%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Granlund – Labanc – Zadina3:24
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerraro – Addison10:58
xG 0.60–0.39 (60%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Burroughs4:10
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Addison – Okhotiuk2:01
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestCarrick – Groulx – Leason9:14
xG 0.94–0.35 (73%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Killorn – Terry – Carlsson10:18
xG 1.06–0.51 (67%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Henrique – Silfverberg – Jones8:56
xG 0.41–0.03 (92%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Strome – Vatrano – McTavish12:32
xG 0.31–0.26 (54%)attempts 8–10goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – LaCombe15:02
xG 1.22–0.21 (85%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Gudas – Vaakanainen16:10
xG 0.93–0.50 (65%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
- Lyubushkin – Mintyukov11:04
xG 0.71–0.30 (70%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).