Mon, Nov 13, 2023·Rogers Place, Edmonton
New York Islanders 1, Edmonton Oilers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 111 | 09 | 013 | 133 |
| EDM | 17 | 06 | 319 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:40NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Bo Horvat, Ryan Pulock · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 14:17EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Darnell Nurse · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 7:35EDMZach HymanPPGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–2
- P3 9:33EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 17:33EDMEvander KaneENAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.77 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P2 2:08EDMRyan McLeod: Holding2 min
- P2 9:54EDMLeon Draisaitl: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:57NYIAnders Lee: Interference2 min
- P3 7:26NYISimon Holmstrom: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 8:36NYIRyan Pulock: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 16:41EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Nelson – Engvall12:46
xG 1.86–0.95 (66%)attempts 24–14goals 0–0
- Horvat – Barzal – Holmstrom12:11
xG 0.31–0.25 (55%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Cizikas – Gauthier7:07
xG 0.07–0.02 (76%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Lee – Pageau – Wahlstrom12:12
xG 0.18–0.39 (31%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPulock – Romanov17:59
xG 1.04–0.75 (58%)attempts 19–20goals 1–0
- Pelech – Dobson16:33
xG 0.62–0.65 (49%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Aho11:25
xG 0.51–0.69 (42%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestFoegele – McLeod – Holloway6:01
xG 0.13–0.00 (98%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Gagner – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid13:06
xG 0.62–0.49 (55%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- Foegele – Ryan – McLeod5:25
xG 0.11–0.08 (57%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Ryan – Hamblin – Lavoie4:04
xG 0.00–0.08 (5%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Desharnais12:55
xG 0.29–0.15 (66%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Bouchard16:42
xG 0.78–0.72 (52%)attempts 22–13goals 0–1
- Ceci – Nurse18:37
xG 1.09–1.45 (43%)attempts 21–28goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).