Mon, Nov 13, 2023·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Colorado Avalanche 5, Seattle Kraken 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 06 | 213 | 312 | 531 |
| SEA | 19 | 09 | 01 | 119 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:13SEABrandon TanevAssists: Vince Dunn, Alexander Wennberg · Backhand, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 12:05COLMikko RantanenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 14:12COLRoss ColtonPPGWGAssists: Tomas Tatar, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 4:14COLCale MakarAssists: Tomas Tatar, Caleb Jones · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 9:09COLJonathan DrouinAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–1
- P3 16:43COLValeri NichushkinPPAssists: Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon · Tip-in, 0.21 xG5–1
Penalties (14)
- P1 5:41COLKurtis MacDermid: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:41SEAJamie Oleksiak: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:26SEAWill Borgen: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:59SEABrandon Tanev: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:13COLValeri Nichushkin: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:56SEAEeli Tolvanen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:57COLDevon Toews: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:35SEAJared McCann: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:35COLDevon Toews: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:09SEAVince Dunn: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:09SEAVince Dunn: Abuse of officials2 min
- P3 14:09SEAVince Dunn: Abuse of officials10 min
- P3 16:06COLJonathan Drouin: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:23SEAJustin Schultz: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Nichushkin – Rantanen12:13
xG 0.75–0.43 (63%)attempts 17–12goals 1–1
- Wood – Colton – O'Connor7:26
xG 0.42–0.22 (65%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Tatar – Johansen – Drouin7:27
xG 0.26–0.29 (47%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Byram3:43
xG 0.30–0.02 (94%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Jones – Byram3:41
xG 0.28–0.06 (82%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Toews – Malinski3:51
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSchwartz – Yamamoto – Beniers6:25
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Kartye – Winterton – Wright3:08
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen11:06
xG 0.31–0.37 (46%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Wennberg – McCann – Tanev7:17
xG 0.22–0.37 (37%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestDumoulin – Borgen2:06
xG 0.07–0.01 (92%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Dunn – Borgen2:11
xG 0.08–0.02 (79%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Schultz – Dumoulin9:35
xG 0.29–0.41 (42%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).