Tue, Nov 14, 2023·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Boston Bruins 5, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 311 | 28 | 013 | 532 |
| BUF | 013 | 18 | 113 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:01BOSDanton HeinenAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Matthew Poitras · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 4:09BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Pavel Zacha, Charlie McAvoy · Slap, 0.10 xG2–0
- P1 15:14BOSBrandon CarloGWGAssists: David Pastrnak, Pavel Zacha · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–0
- P2 4:07BOSOskar SteenAssists: Jakub Lauko · Snap, 0.10 xG4–0
- P2 12:23BOSHampus LindholmPPAssists: David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.04 xG5–0
- P2 15:07BUFVictor OlofssonAssists: Owen Power, Dylan Cozens · Snap, 0.08 xG5–1
- P3 15:02BUFVictor OlofssonAssists: JJ Peterka, Casey Mittelstadt · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:21BOSCharlie McAvoy: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:21BUFDylan Cozens: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:01BOSMatthew Poitras: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:38BUFCasey Mittelstadt: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:27BUFErik Johnson: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:48BUFUkko-Pekka Luukkonen: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:34BOSMatthew Poitras: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Krebs
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestMarchand – Pastrnak – Zacha9:00
xG 0.74–0.36 (67%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Coyle – Frederic10:48
xG 0.85–0.54 (61%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Heinen – DeBrusk – Poitras8:23
xG 0.38–0.36 (52%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Steen – Lauko – Beecher8:14
xG 0.17–0.38 (31%)attempts 3–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Carlo13:14
xG 1.62–0.65 (71%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Forbort – Carlo2:34
xG 0.12–0.01 (95%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Forbort8:29
xG 0.07–0.12 (38%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Olofsson – Cozens2:36
xG 0.46–0.12 (79%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Krebs10:10
xG 0.35–0.19 (65%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Greenway – Mittelstadt – Peterka6:17
xG 0.19–0.07 (72%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Jost – Rousek2:59
xG 0.09–0.27 (26%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Clifton3:09
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Dahlin15:43
xG 0.87–0.91 (49%)attempts 17–21goals 0–1
- Johnson – Johnson6:15
xG 0.31–0.50 (39%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).