Tue, Nov 14, 2023·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 112 | 112 | 317 | 541 |
| CBJ | 26 | 013 | 111 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:10PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Marcus Pettersson, Kris Letang · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 10:29CBJKirill MarchenkoUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 19:28CBJEgor ChinakhovAssists: Erik Gudbranson, Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 7:04PITJake GuentzelAssists: Vinnie Hinostroza, Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.26 xG2–2
- P3 8:40PITErik KarlssonAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Rickard Rakell · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 11:45CBJAlexandre TexierAssists: Sean Kuraly, Justin Danforth · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 14:28PITSidney CrosbyGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson, Jake Guentzel · Tip-in, 0.04 xG4–3
- P3 19:23PITSidney CrosbyENAssists: Bryan Rust · Snap, 0.70 xG5–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 15:11PITVinnie Hinostroza: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:35PITRyan Graves: Interference2 min
- P2 18:24PITLars Eller: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:13CBJSean Kuraly: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:13PITRadim Zohorna: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Jenner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestEller – O'Connor – Zohorna10:09
xG 0.88–0.11 (89%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Malkin – Smith – Rakell11:47
xG 1.14–0.63 (64%)attempts 16–9goals 1–2
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel13:14
xG 0.52–0.27 (65%)attempts 19–12goals 2–1
- Nieto – Hinostroza – Acciari5:23
xG 0.06–0.10 (39%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Pettersson15:18
xG 1.16–0.31 (79%)attempts 17–12goals 3–0
- Ruhwedel – Shea7:51
xG 0.74–0.16 (82%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Ruhwedel2:27
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestKuraly – Danforth – Texier10:26
xG 0.84–0.74 (53%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Jenner – Laine3:00
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Jenner – Laine – Chinakhov9:25
xG 0.35–0.32 (52%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
- Gaudreau – Bemstrom – Sillinger8:51
xG 0.30–0.52 (37%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Bean – Jiricek11:28
xG 0.18–0.17 (51%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Severson – Werenski2:32
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Severson – Provorov15:41
xG 1.19–1.72 (41%)attempts 20–27goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).