Tue, Nov 14, 2023·Capital One Arena, Washington
Vegas Golden Knights 0, Washington Capitals 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 014 | 011 | 010 | 035 |
| WSH | 110 | 011 | 210 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:39WSHDylan StromeGWGAssists: Sonny Milano · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P3 19:11WSHConnor McMichaelENAssists: John Carlson, Rasmus Sandin · Wrist, 0.75 xG0–2
- P3 19:27WSHBeck MalenstynUnassisted · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:09VGKJonathan Marchessault: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:32VGKKeegan Kolesar: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:32WSHDylan McIlrath: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:56VGKPaul Cotter: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:18VGKPaul Cotter: Match penalty5 min
- P2 10:46WSHLucas Johansen: Holding2 min
- P3 3:43WSHTom Wilson: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStone – Carrier – Amadio8:19
xG 1.02–0.24 (81%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Marchessault – Barbashev – Eichel10:14
xG 0.52–0.19 (73%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Kolesar – Howden – Rondbjerg4:56
xG 0.12–0.04 (77%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Cotter – Dorofeyev5:11
xG 0.28–0.50 (36%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Pietrangelo14:41
xG 0.75–0.17 (82%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- McNabb – Theodore13:35
xG 1.05–1.03 (50%)attempts 21–15goals 0–0
- Hutton – Whitecloud11:33
xG 0.55–0.57 (49%)attempts 13–10goals 0–2
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestMilano – Strome – Phillips7:20
xG 0.74–0.42 (64%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Dowd – Aube-Kubel – Malenstyn8:56
xG 0.51–0.35 (59%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Oshie – McMichael – Protas8:35
xG 0.16–0.29 (36%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson12:45
xG 0.21–1.17 (15%)attempts 8–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcIlrath – Alexeyev5:35
xG 0.43–0.04 (91%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Jensen – Sandin9:53
xG 0.53–0.60 (47%)attempts 11–19goals 0–0
- Jensen – Alexeyev2:01
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).