Tue, Nov 14, 2023·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Anaheim Ducks 3, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 05 | 18 | 27 | 320 |
| NSH | 011 | 210 | 09 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:03NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Alexandre Carrier, Ryan O'Reilly · Bat, 0.28 xG0–1
- P2 14:28NSHRoman JosiPPAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Ryan O'Reilly · Slap, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 17:28ANACam FowlerAssists: Frank Vatrano, Mason McTavish · Deflected, 0.01 xG1–2
- P3 4:11ANARadko GudasAssists: Troy Terry, Urho Vaakanainen · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 16:09ANAAdam HenriqueGWGAssists: Urho Vaakanainen, Radko Gudas · Deflected, 0.12 xG3–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:28ANAMason McTavish: Holding2 min
- P1 9:49ANAUrho Vaakanainen: Holding2 min
- P1 13:38NSHAlexandre Carrier: Boarding2 min
- P1 18:49ANAJackson LaCombe: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:17NSHKiefer Sherwood: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:49ANARyan Strome: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:49ANARadko Gudas: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:49NSHJeremy Lauzon: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:21NSHMichael McCarron: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:21ANARoss Johnston: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:21ANARoss Johnston: Misconduct10 min
- P3 10:23ANAAlex Killorn: Holding2 min
- P3 16:44NSHColton Sissons: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Parssinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSilfverberg – Jones – Groulx9:18
xG 0.52–0.07 (88%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Strome – Vatrano – McTavish11:22
xG 0.48–0.24 (67%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Killorn – Henrique – Terry9:00
xG 0.23–0.11 (67%)attempts 3–4goals 2–0
- Carrick – Johnston – Leason3:51
xG 0.08–0.05 (61%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLyubushkin – Mintyukov13:23
xG 0.67–0.05 (93%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Gudas – Vaakanainen9:02
xG 0.35–0.11 (76%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Fowler – LaCombe10:52
xG 0.02–0.16 (9%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg8:35
xG 0.53–0.15 (78%)attempts 9–3goals 1–1
- Glass – Sherwood – Evangelista4:05
xG 0.07–0.12 (36%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Parssinen9:12
xG 0.08–0.16 (35%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- McCarron – Foudy – Smith6:08
xG 0.09–0.31 (22%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Lauzon – Fabbro2:56
xG 0.15–0.11 (57%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Lauzon – Carrier8:47
xG 0.05–0.15 (25%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Barrie – Del Gaizo8:50
xG 0.06–0.17 (28%)attempts 10–6goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).