Wed, Nov 15, 2023·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Seattle Kraken 3, Edmonton Oilers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 013 | 315 | 06 | 01 | 335 |
| EDM | 011 | 17 | 210 | 13 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:21EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 7:20SEAJared McCannAssists: Jordan Eberle, Jamie Oleksiak · Slap, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 9:24SEAPierre-Edouard BellemareAssists: Tye Kartye, Vince Dunn · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 17:21SEAAlexander WennbergAssists: Eeli Tolvanen, Oliver Bjorkstrand · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–1
- P3 13:28EDMEvander KaneAssists: Evan Bouchard, Mattias Ekholm · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 19:14EDMEvander KaneAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Slap, 0.44 xG3–3
- OT 2:57EDMEvander KaneGWGAssists: Zach Hyman, Evan Bouchard · Slap, 0.19 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 15:06EDMBrett Kulak: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 1:50SEABrian Dumoulin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:20EDMSam Gagner: Holding2 min
- P2 13:56SEAMatty Beniers: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:17EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:30SEAOliver Bjorkstrand: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:30EDMDerek Ryan: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:30EDMZach Hyman: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:46SEAJaden Schwartz: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:57EDMAdam Erne: Illegal check to head2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSchwartz – Wennberg – Tanev7:40
xG 0.50–0.03 (94%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen8:03
xG 0.44–0.25 (64%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Eberle – McCann – Beniers8:14
xG 0.49–0.33 (60%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Bellemare – Yamamoto – Kartye4:33
xG 0.13–0.03 (83%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn13:30
xG 1.09–0.30 (78%)attempts 14–11goals 1–2
- Schultz – Dumoulin11:06
xG 1.02–0.47 (68%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Borgen12:15
xG 0.65–0.72 (47%)attempts 10–17goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid5:27
xG 0.22–0.33 (40%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Gagner – Kane – Nugent-Hopkins2:07
xG 0.15–0.28 (34%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Erne – Hamblin – Lavoie4:33
xG 0.02–0.18 (12%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Kane – Hyman – Draisaitl6:54
xG 0.23–0.42 (35%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard14:14
xG 0.87–0.80 (52%)attempts 14–12goals 2–2
- Kulak – Desharnais9:22
xG 0.12–0.78 (13%)attempts 5–19goals 0–1
- Ceci – Nurse15:49
xG 0.57–1.39 (29%)attempts 17–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).