Wed, Nov 15, 2023·Ball Arena, Denver
Anaheim Ducks 2, Colorado Avalanche 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 13 | 09 | 15 | 217 |
| COL | 217 | 111 | 510 | 838 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:40COLSamuel GirardAssists: Jack Johnson, Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–1
- P1 12:40COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Devon Toews, Cale Makar · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 19:27ANASam CarrickAssists: Radko Gudas, Brock McGinn · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 14:33COLFredrik OlofssonGWGAssists: Logan O'Connor, Joel Kiviranta · Snap, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 3:53COLRoss ColtonAssists: Logan O'Connor, Miles Wood · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–4
- P3 5:51COLValeri NichushkinPPAssists: Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–5
- P3 9:41ANAMax JonesAssists: Adam Henrique, Jakob Silfverberg · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–5
- P3 13:13COLJoel KivirantaAssists: Samuel Girard, Alexandar Georgiev · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–6
- P3 13:34COLAndrew CoglianoAssists: Joel Kiviranta, Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–7
- P3 15:18COLDevon ToewsAssists: Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–8
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:11ANARyan Strome: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:57COLJonathan Drouin: Holding2 min
- P1 16:38COLTomas Tatar: Interference2 min
- P2 3:29COLMikko Rantanen: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 4:34ANAPavel Mintyukov: Holding2 min
- P2 10:26ANAMax Jones: Interference2 min
- P3 5:09ANAFrank Vatrano: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 10:51ANAFrank Vatrano: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Carlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestCarrick – McGinn – Groulx8:01
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Henrique – Silfverberg – Jones7:02
xG 0.44–0.33 (57%)attempts 10–4goals 1–1
- Strome – Vatrano – McTavish10:04
xG 0.60–0.52 (53%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
- Killorn – Terry – Carlsson11:03
xG 0.16–0.83 (16%)attempts 4–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Vaakanainen13:46
xG 0.64–0.48 (57%)attempts 15–9goals 2–1
- Fowler – LaCombe11:50
xG 0.50–0.57 (47%)attempts 8–11goals 0–3
- Lyubushkin – Mintyukov14:30
xG 0.25–1.04 (20%)attempts 6–14goals 0–2
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWood – Colton – O'Connor9:46
xG 0.80–0.29 (74%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Tatar – Johansen – Drouin9:06
xG 0.42–0.19 (69%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Olofsson – Kiviranta7:27
xG 0.28–0.14 (67%)attempts 3–4goals 2–0
- MacKinnon – Nichushkin – Rantanen9:43
xG 0.49–0.44 (53%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Jones8:53
xG 0.77–0.21 (79%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
- Toews – Makar10:07
xG 0.50–0.18 (73%)attempts 10–5goals 2–0
- Girard – Byram11:46
xG 0.44–0.54 (45%)attempts 8–8goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).