Thu, Nov 16, 2023·Centre Bell, Montreal
Vegas Golden Knights 6, Montréal Canadiens 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 018 | 411 | 213 | 642 |
| MTL | 26 | 210 | 112 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:43MTLAlex NewhookAssists: Nick Suzuki, Mike Matheson · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 10:03MTLJohnathan KovacevicAssists: Alex Newhook, Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 2:33VGKBrett HowdenSHAssists: Keegan Kolesar · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 8:28MTLJesse YlonenUnassisted · Snap, 0.19 xG1–3
- P2 8:46VGKBrayden McNabbAssists: Shea Theodore, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 11:20VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Michael Amadio · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
- P2 11:53MTLJesse YlonenAssists: Michael Pezzetta, Gustav Lindstrom · Snap, 0.11 xG3–4
- P2 16:07VGKShea TheodorePPAssists: Jack Eichel, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–4
- P3 18:04VGKJack EichelPPAssists: Shea Theodore, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–4
- P3 18:48VGKMark StonePPGWGAssists: William Karlsson, Shea Theodore · Wrap-around, 0.11 xG6–4
- P3 19:06MTLJustin BarronAssists: Cole Caufield, Mike Matheson · Slap, 0.11 xG6–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:56MTLMike Matheson: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:11VGKKeegan Kolesar: Boarding2 min
- P2 0:56VGKMark Stone: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:11MTLKaiden Guhle: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:27VGKMark Stone: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:10MTLKaiden Guhle: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:09MTLJuraj Slafkovský: Holding2 min
- P3 9:35MTLJustin Barron: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:09MTLBrendan Gallagher: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Cotter – Dorofeyev7:10
xG 1.71–0.44 (79%)attempts 20–8goals 0–1
- Stone – Amadio – Howden8:16
xG 0.43–0.14 (76%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Carrier – Kolesar – Roy6:27
xG 0.36–0.27 (57%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Marchessault – Barbashev – Eichel8:20
xG 0.42–0.84 (33%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Pietrangelo12:58
xG 2.25–0.29 (89%)attempts 32–12goals 0–1
- Hutton – Whitecloud10:26
xG 0.42–0.24 (63%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Theodore2:12
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDvorak – Caufield – Slafkovský8:46
xG 0.30–0.20 (60%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Anderson – Suzuki – Newhook8:28
xG 0.40–0.57 (42%)attempts 8–8goals 2–0
- Evans – Pezzetta – Ylonen5:53
xG 0.34–1.05 (25%)attempts 6–12goals 2–0
- Gallagher – Pearson – Monahan8:02
xG 0.27–1.05 (20%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLindstrom – Xhekaj7:27
xG 0.55–0.26 (68%)attempts 5–10goals 2–0
- Lindstrom – Guhle2:39
xG 0.07–0.02 (77%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Kovacevic – Guhle10:44
xG 0.77–1.08 (42%)attempts 10–18goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).