Thu, Nov 16, 2023·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Vancouver Canucks 2, Calgary Flames 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 19 | 05 | 18 | 222 |
| CGY | 111 | 217 | 211 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:38VANElias PetterssonPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes · Slap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 17:55CGYMacKenzie WeegarAssists: A.J. Greer, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 10:49CGYDillon DubeAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–2
- P2 19:24CGYNoah HanifinGWGAssists: Blake Coleman, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 5:53CGYJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Mikael Backlund, Blake Coleman · Snap, 0.24 xG1–4
- P3 10:06VANNils HoglanderAssists: Tyler Myers, Sam Lafferty · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 18:08CGYElias LindholmENAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.63 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:05VANQuinn Hughes: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:46CGYAdam Ruzicka: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:21VANFilip Hronek: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:21CGYMartin Pospisil: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:47VANQuinn Hughes: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:47CGYBlake Coleman: Interference2 min
- P3 10:30CGYMartin Pospisil: Interference2 min
- P3 11:11VANConor Garland: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:39CGYA.J. Greer: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- Miller – Boeser – Mikheyev2:33
xG 0.03–0.02 (63%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Joshua – Garland – Pettersson2:10
xG 0.02–0.05 (35%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Di Giuseppe – Blueger – Beauvillier2:59
xG 0.08–0.11 (43%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Miller – Di Giuseppe – Boeser8:31
xG 0.23–0.31 (43%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Myers2:02
xG 0.26–0.03 (88%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Cole – Hronek8:38
xG 0.56–0.45 (55%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Myers – Hughes2:08
xG 0.06–0.02 (76%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLindholm – Mangiapane – Dube8:42
xG 0.57–0.18 (76%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Huberdeau12:04
xG 0.72–0.37 (66%)attempts 21–6goals 1–0
- Greer – Ruzicka – Sharangovich5:30
xG 0.50–0.15 (77%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Kadri – Pospisil – Zary11:36
xG 0.46–0.16 (74%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Andersson14:54
xG 1.09–0.43 (72%)attempts 18–20goals 2–0
- Zadorov – DeSimone14:05
xG 0.70–0.11 (86%)attempts 18–3goals 0–1
- Tanev – Hanifin14:02
xG 0.67–0.57 (54%)attempts 25–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).